Ancient Bitcoin is moving again — and not in a whisper. As BTC tries to rebuild momentum, OG whales keep sending coins to exchanges, setting up a tug-of-war between fresh bid support and surging sell-side liquidity. If you’re trading this tape, you’re not fighting retail—you’re navigating decade-old supply deciding to cash in.

What’s happening now

Onchain Lens flagged a Bitcoin OG depositing 200 BTC to Kraken (≈ $22.32M) as part of a broader wave. Over the past two weeks, this OG has moved about $627M worth of BTC to exchanges. Separately, Glassnode data shows long-term holders have distributed roughly 300,000 BTC over recent months—material headwinds for upside momentum.

Why this matters to traders

Large exchange inflows from older cohorts often precede or coincide with sell pressure, widening spreads and spiking intraday volatility. The $100,000 level is a powerful profit-taking magnet for early holders. Expect liquidity hunts around big round numbers and rapid mean-reversion when books thin out.

Market context

Bitcoin trades near $112,519 (+5% WoW) with four consecutive green daily candles, yet remains ~10.8% below the early-October local high around $126,080. A modest macro tailwind—reports of U.S.–China trade progress—helped risk tone, but distribution from OG wallets still caps clean trend continuation.

Levels and signals to watch

• Price levels: Support interest near $105k–$100k; resistance supply at $118k–$120k and $126k.
• On-chain: Exchange net inflows, LTH-SOPR, and Spent Output Age Bands for old-coin activity.
• Order flow: Spot vs perp CVD, funding/basis; watch for spot-led pushes (constructive) vs perp-led squeezes (fragile).
• Liquidity: Heatmaps around $100k and $126k where resting orders cluster.

Actionable trading playbook

• If exchange inflows stay elevated: Expect supply on rips; consider fading rallies into $115k–$120k with tight invalidation, or wait for clear absorption before engaging.
• If inflows cool and spot leads: A sustained bid with positive spot CVD opens a momentum break above $118.5k toward $122k–$126k.
• Volatility hedges: Long spot can be paired with short-dated puts or put spreads into key resistance clusters.
• Patience at $100k: Liquidity sweeps below $102k–$100k often create better risk/reward entries; avoid chasing mid-range.

Risk management

OG distribution can persist longer than expected. Use defined invalidation, reduce leverage into resistance, and size for volatility. If price stalls while inflows rise, prioritize capital preservation over hero trades.

Bottom line

The market is balancing a mild recovery against a supply overhang from OG coins. Track inflows and order flow at the key levels above; let liquidity and absorption—not emotion—dictate your next move.

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