Bitcoin miners are quietly stepping off the sell button—and that could be the catalyst most traders are underestimating. With miner deposits to exchanges trending lower on a 30-day moving average, supply from one of Bitcoin’s most consistent sellers is drying up. Historically, that shift has preceded stronger upside moves as sell pressure fades and demand meets a thinner order book.

What’s Changing On-Chain?

The 30D moving average of miner-to-exchange flows has slipped to a short-term low, signaling accumulation rather than distribution by miners. When fewer freshly minted coins hit exchanges, immediate supply shrinks—often a tailwind for price momentum. This aligns with analyses from on-chain contributors tracking flows as a proxy for supply-side pressure.

Why It Matters for Traders

Miners are the “producers” of BTC. When they hold, it’s a vote of confidence and a reduced headwind for price. In a market with steady or rising demand, falling exchange supply can create a supply squeeze, increasing the odds of impulsive moves higher. It also tends to improve the quality of uptrends—fewer abrupt miner-led sell-offs and cleaner price structures.

Key Levels and Timing

Some analysts highlight $112,000 as a critical support. Holding above that area reinforces the bullish read from miner flows and keeps the path open toward new highs. Loss of that level—especially alongside a spike in miner deposits—would weaken the setup.

Actionable Playbook

• Track miner-to-exchange flow (30D MA) and miner reserves on platforms like CryptoQuant or Glassnode; treat sharp upticks as early warning.
• Pair with exchange BTC reserves and order-book liquidity to gauge how thin spot supply truly is.
• Use alerts: notify on miner flow breakouts, BTC daily close around $112K, funding flips, and open interest spikes (watch for overheated leverage).
• Define invalidation: a daily close below $112K plus rising miner deposits reduces the long bias.
• Size prudently: scale in on pullbacks while flows remain muted; avoid chasing if miner selling resurges.

Risks and Invalidations

Macro shocks, regulatory headlines, or a sudden miner capitulation (e.g., revenue stress from hashrate or energy costs) can reverse the signal. If miner deposits jump and BTC loses key support, expect increased volatility and deeper drawdowns.

Bottom Line

Falling miner deposits are a credible, historically bullish input—especially if BTC holds above $112,000. Combine on-chain flows with technical levels and liquidity reads to refine entries and exits, and let the data confirm the trend before sizing up.

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