Bitcoin just survived a $15,000 swing from its early-October record near $126,198 and is stabilizing around $111,616, quietly flashing signs of strength while most traders still focus on the drop. On-chain data shows selling pressure fading, volumes thinning, and institutions re-engaging—an explosive mix that can turn a sluggish bounce into a sharp move if demand steps in. With the crucial $110,000 level acting as a line in the sand, the next sessions are less about calling tops and more about positioning around a potential supply squeeze.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin’s “supply in profit ratio” has fallen notably in recent weeks, meaning fewer holders are in immediate profit—and fewer are willing to sell into weakness. That aligns with declining market-wide selling pressure and a visible shift toward accumulation. Price is up a modest 0.32% in 24 hours, tapping $111,850 intraday, while trading volumes slipped about 20.9% to $40.43B—thin liquidity that can amplify moves once bids outweigh offers.

Why this matters to traders

When sellers step back and liquidity is light, even moderate buy flows can push price fast. Add rising institutional interest—JPMorgan preparing to accept Bitcoin as loan collateral by 2025, BlackRock’s ETF traction, and continued MicroStrategy accumulation—and the backdrop favors upside asymmetry if $110,000 holds. The market isn’t fully back to its pre-liquidation state, but historically similar post-shakeout phases often precede strong directional moves.

Key levels and signals to watch

- Support: $110,000 remains pivotal for the short-term trend and risk management. - Upside magnets: A steady grind can revisit $120,000 if spot demand persists and sellers stay passive. - Liquidity context: Lower volume increases slippage—expect faster moves once momentum triggers. - On-chain tone: Easing profit-supply ratio and accumulation are constructive if confirmed by spot-led buying.

Actionable game plan

• Define your invalidation: consider tightening risk below $110,000; if lost on a daily close, expect downside volatility.
• Prefer spot-led strength: look for spot premium over perps, cooling funding, and stable/rising Open Interest without crowded longs.
• Stagger entries: scale into bids on shallow pullbacks toward $110k–$112k; avoid chasing wicks in thin books.
• Track flows: monitor ETF net inflows and large custody movements; renewed institutional demand can catalyze a squeeze.
• Be patient on breakouts: only add on confirmed pushes with acceptance above recent intraday highs and sustained volume.

Risk radar

A clean break and daily close below $110,000—especially alongside rising leverage and negative spot/perp dynamics—could unlock lower liquidity pockets. Keep size disciplined and stops practical; thin markets cut both ways.

The bottom line

With selling pressure cooling and institutions reappearing, Bitcoin is setting up for a “less supply, more impact” regime. The simple, actionable edge: respect $110,000 support and align with spot-driven bids; if it holds, the path back toward $120,000 reopens.

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