Bitcoin is flashing warning signs as it trades near $109,000, slipping below the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price around $113,250—a level that has historically preceded deeper drawdowns toward the Long-Term Holder (LTH) realized price near $37,000. With a surge in retail selling on Binance and macro catalysts like CPI on deck, liquidity is thinning at local support and the next impulse could decide whether this is a routine reset—or the start of a bigger leg down.

What’s happening right now

Recent on-chain and flow data point to mounting pressure: - BTC has fallen below the STH realized price (~$113,250). In prior cycles, losing STH support often nudged price toward the LTH realized price (~$36,910–$37,000) during deeper corrections. - Retail selling on Binance spiked: roughly 13,000 BTC (~$1.4B) sold on Oct 22, echoing a similar wave on Oct 17. - The STH realized cap collapsed from $15.2B to $2.2B in eight days—evidence that short-term players exited or capitulated. - Long-term wallets appear to be accumulating, a pattern often seen during retail-driven dips. - Price is holding a key demand zone at $108K–$110K, aligned with the 21-week EMA. A decisive reclaim above $114K is needed to flip momentum after rejection near $114.5K. - Technically, a bullish divergence and a 12h golden cross are developing, but they need confirmation via a strong close back above resistance.

Why this matters to traders

Slipping below STH realized price often turns that level into overhead supply, making bounces fragile until reclaimed. If the $108K–$110K shelf breaks on volume, liquidity gaps can accelerate moves. Conversely, if BTC defends the 21-week EMA and reclaims $114K, it signals absorption of retail supply and opens a path to range expansion.

Key levels to anchor your plan

- Support: $108K–$110K (confluent with 21-week EMA) - Resistance/Pivot: $113.25K (STH realized), $114K (momentum flip), $114.5K (recent rejection) - Cycle Anchor: $36.9K–$37K (LTH realized zone; historical magnet in deeper drawdowns)

Macro catalysts on the clock

CPI is the main volatility trigger. As one analyst put it: a higher-than-expected print likely means more pain; a softer print can boost risk appetite. Also watch U.S. yields, DXY, and spot BTC ETF flows as larger holders reportedly rotate coins into ETFs during this “liquidity-driven mid-cycle reset.”

Actionable playbook (risk-first)

• Respect the STH line: Below ~$113.25K, treat rallies as supply until a daily close above $114K confirms trend repair.
• Trade the range: Consider mean-reversion only near $108K–$110K with tight invalidation; don’t chase mid-range.
• Hedge tactically: If $108K fails on rising volume, short with tight stops or use protective puts (where available) to cap downside.
• Fade extremes, not noise: If funding flips heavily negative and 12h divergence strengthens at support, scale in modestly; reduce on bounces into $113–$114.5K.
• Mind the calendar: De-lever ahead of CPI; widen stops or reduce size to avoid event whipsaw.
• Follow the flows: Track Binance netflow, STH realized cap stabilization, and ETF net creations for confirmation of demand returning.

One clear takeaway

Until BTC reclaims $114K, the path of least resistance is choppy and downward-leaning. Keep risk tight at $108K–$110K, trade reaction not prediction, and let a clean close above $114K be your signal that buyers have regained control.

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