Bitcoin is holding above $116,000 while miners quietly reload and spot ETFs vacuum up supply—just as markets price in potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. With stocks at record highs, miner accumulation at a multi-year pace, and $1.3B pouring into spot ETFs in two days, traders are staring at a classic cocktail for a supply-driven squeeze. The question now: does macro fuel the breakout, or does the next FOMC headline catch late longs offside?

Miners Flip to Net Accumulation

Glassnode data shows miners have increased reserves for three consecutive weeks, with a net add of 573 BTC on Tuesday—the largest one-day build since October 2023. When miners accumulate, it typically signals reduced near-term sell pressure and tighter circulating supply. Traders should watch miner Net Position Change and miner exchange flows; a pivot back to distribution often precedes local tops.

Institutional Bids Don’t Sleep

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.3B inflows over two sessions, taking total AUM to $148B. iShares Bitcoin Trust leads with $87.5B; Fidelity FBTC sits near $23B. Beyond ETFs, public companies continue to add—firms like Strategy, Metaplanet, and Cango Inc. are boosting holdings. The top 100 public companies now control over 1 million BTC, with Strategy announcing another $220M purchase this week. Persistent institutional demand tightens available float and can accelerate trend moves when liquidity thins.

Why This Matters to Traders

With BTC above $116K, miner accumulation and ETF inflows point to a constructive supply/demand backdrop. Rate-cut expectations lower real yields and often support risk assets—including crypto. But a surprise from the Fed or a cooling of ETF momentum can trigger abrupt mean reversion. This environment rewards disciplined trend-following with tight invalidation, not late chasing.

Key Levels and Catalysts

Focus on daily closes above $116,000 to confirm support. Monitor ETF net flows, miner reserve changes, DXY and U.S. 10Y yields around Fedspeak and the next FOMC decision. Rising futures funding and a steeper positive basis, alongside options IV skew flipping call-heavy, can warn of an overheated long side.

Actionable Playbook

• Bias long while BTC holds daily above $116K and ETF flows remain net positive; fade strength if flows flip negative.
• Use staggered bids (spot or low leverage) into pullbacks near prior intraday demand; set hard invalidation below the prior day’s low.
• Track miner outflows to exchanges; a spike often precedes supply-driven pullbacks.
• Watch DXY: a strong USD bounce can cap BTC; a USD drift lower post-Fed supports continuation.
• Hedge with short-dated puts into major macro events; re-open directional exposure after the first impulse resolves.

Risks to Respect

ETF outflows after a hot run, miners flipping back to distribution, and thinner weekend liquidity can exacerbate downside. Macro surprises (a hawkish Fed path or sticky inflation) can reprice risk quickly. Keep position sizes modest relative to volatility and avoid excessive leverage into policy events.

The Takeaway

As long as $116K holds on a daily basis and we continue to see net miner accumulation plus positive ETF flow, the path of least resistance is higher—favor buy-the-dip strategies over breakouts and let flows be your guide. Lose those pillars, and step aside fast.

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