Bitcoin has ridden above six figures for four straight months, but the “granddaddy” of volume just flashed its weakest reading since April — a classic warning that price strength may be built on sand. With the On-Balance Volume (OBV) breaking down while spot holds near $111K, and momentum turning south, traders are asking a tough question: is a sweep of $100K next, or is this the shakeout before the next leg up?

What just happened: OBV breaks while price holds

The OBV — a cumulative measure that adds volume on up days and subtracts on down days — has fallen to its lowest level since April even as BTC stayed above $100K. When price moves sideways but OBV makes new lows, it often signals distribution under the surface and warns that price could follow the volume lower.

Why this matters to traders

OBV breakdowns frequently precede range resolutions. Coupled with a bearish MACD histogram on the weekly chart and spot trading below the 50-day SMA, the path of least resistance can tilt down if buyers don’t step in. A decisive loss of nearby support risks an air pocket into the psychological $100K area, where liquidity is dense and volatility can spike — a critical zone for risk management.

Key levels and triggers

• Support: ~$107,300 (late-August intraday lows that launched the last bounce). A daily close below shifts focus to ~$99,225.
• Resistance: The 50-day SMA. Reclaiming and holding above it would be a bullish tell.
• Confirmation: OBV making higher lows while price reclaims the 50-day SMA improves odds of an upside continuation.

Actionable game plan

• If long: Consider trimming into strength below the 50-day SMA. Place stops or hedges beneath $107,300. Protective puts or collars into event risk can cap downside if $100K gets tested.
• Dip strategy: If $107,300 breaks, plan staggered bids toward the $100K–$99,225 zone only if OBV stabilizes and momentum cools. Avoid catching a knife while volume bleeds.
• If short/hedging: Look for a daily close below $107,300 with continued OBV weakness for confirmation. Manage risk around $100K, where rebounds can be violent.
• Invalidation: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA with a rising OBV and improving weekly MACD puts shorts at risk and opens a squeeze setup.
• Discipline: Size positions modestly, predefine exits, and avoid excessive leverage around round-number magnets like $100K.

Macro and flow context

Upcoming data (e.g., inflation prints) and institutional developments can push volatility. Watch funding rates, basis, and order book liquidity around $107K and $100K for early signs of stress or absorption.

Bottom line

Volume is whispering weakness even as price pretends all is well. Respect $107,300 as a pivot: lose it, and the market may test $100K and $99,225; reclaim the 50-day SMA with rising OBV, and the bull case revives. Plan the trade, then trade the plan.

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