Bitcoin just slipped again—and the market’s sending a split message that demands attention. Spot supply on exchanges is drying up, yet price keeps grinding lower, signaling that demand is the missing piece. With Bitcoin trapped between $113k resistance and $105k support, the next decisive break could tilt the path toward a swift test of $95.8k—or a relief push back into the mid-$110ks. In short: one line on the chart is likely to decide the next $10k–$20k move.

What’s happening

Trading volumes have fallen sharply (down ~31% to roughly $50B) as Bitcoin dipped about 2% on the day. On-chain, over 200,000 BTC flowed off exchanges in October, pushing reserves to new lows—supportive for long-term scarcity, but not enough to counter short-term selling. Glassnode warns that failing to reclaim the $113k cost-basis region risks a slide toward $88k as some long-term holders continue gradual profit-taking.

Why this matters to traders

Price is rejecting overhead while liquidity thins—an environment where breaks tend to accelerate. Macro uncertainty adds fuel: Fed Chair Powell signaled a December cut is “far from certain,” keeping risk assets uneasy. Meanwhile, leverage has been washed out since the October crash, reducing forced-liquidation risk but also muting upside momentum without fresh spot demand.

Key levels and signals

RSI sits near 45 and MACD remains negative—momentum favors sellers. The range is clear: resistance at $113k–$115k, support at $105k. Lose $105k, and the path opens to $95.8k and potentially the $88k area flagged by Glassnode. Reclaim and hold above $113k on strong spot volume, and a retest of mid-$110ks comes back into play.

Actionable trading plan

• Range approach: Until a break, treat $105k–$113k as a tactical range. Fade extremes with tight stops; avoid mid-range chop.
• Bearish breakdown: If $105k breaks on expanding volume, consider short setups on retests, targets near $95.8k then $90k–$88k. Invalidation: sustained reclaim back above $105k.
• Bullish confirmation: Wait for a daily close above $113k with rising spot volume and improving ETF/custodial inflows; use pullbacks to risk-manage toward $115k–$118k. Invalidation: close back below $113k.
• Options hedge: In uncertainty, consider put spreads to define downside risk or call diagonals if betting on a slower grind higher.
• Risk control: Keep leverage light; widen stops in thin liquidity; size for volatility around macro headlines.

On-chain and flow cues to watch

Falling exchange reserves support the longer-term bull case, but near-term price needs net spot demand. Track ETF/custodial net flows, funding rates, and open interest. A shift to persistent positive spot flows alongside a flip in momentum would validate any breakout above $113k.

Bottom line

This market is defined by a simple test: Defend $105k or risk a fast trip toward $95.8k–$88k. Patience pays here—wait for confirmation, trade the break, and let volume be your guide.

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