Bitcoin is grinding higher even as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs leak capital — a rare divergence that has traders asking: what’s quietly driving bid-side resilience? With BTC reclaiming the $109k handle, a rising wedge forming on the 4-hour chart, and an imminent CPI print that could swing macro risk in minutes, the next leg looks primed to be decisive. Add in fresh remarks from Donald Trump about a potential China deal, and you have a cocktail of flows, macro, and technicals converging around a narrow window of opportunity.

What’s happening now

BTC rose about 1.2% in the last 24 hours to roughly $109,400–$109,500, while the broader crypto market cap ticked up 1.18%. Despite that bounce, Bitcoin remains lower over the week and month, reflecting a fragile trend into key resistance.

On October 22, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $101M, even as BlackRock’s IBIT drew a positive $73.63M inflow. ETH ETFs also saw net outflows of $18.77M, offset by a notable $111M inflow into BlackRock’s ETHA.

Why this matters to traders

Diverging ETF flows versus spot strength can precede volatility: either ETF selling exhausts and price rips, or spot strength fades and we mean-revert. The next CPI print is the macro catalyst. A cooler CPI eases rate fears and typically supports risk assets like BTC; a hotter print tightens conditions and can trigger a risk-off sweep.

Key levels and indicators

BTC has repeatedly defended the $106k–$107k zone and is now rotating between $108k support and $113k resistance. The 4h MACD is still below the signal line (neutral-to-bearish momentum), while RSI ~52 is neutral. Structure is a rising wedge, which often breaks lower — unless momentum accelerates on a clean breakout.

• Immediate pivot: $110,000 (acceptance above favors upside test)
• Resistance: $113,000 (decision zone; sweep or breakout)
• Supports: $108,000, then $106,000–$107,000 (buyers’ last stand)

ETF flows: signal or noise?

A headline $101M outflow is bearish at face value, but the internal mix matters: IBIT inflows suggest sticky institutional demand even as peers trim. If outflows slow or flip positive alongside a soft CPI, that’s fuel for a squeeze into and through $113k. Persistent outflows into a hot CPI would likely cap rallies.

Actionable trade setups

• Breakout plan: Look for 4h close and hold above $110k with rising volume. If confirmed, target the $112.5k–$113k supply. Partial take-profit into $113k; trail stops to breakeven.
• Fade the rejection: If price wicks into $112.5k–$113k and momentum stalls (RSI divergence / MACD rollover), consider a short with invalidation just above the wick high; first target $108k.
• Buy the dip: On CPI knee-jerk selloff into $106k–$107k, watch for absorption and a higher low on the 1h; define risk below $105.5k.
• Risk control: Size smaller into CPI; consider bracket orders and alerts at $108k, $110k, $113k.

Risk factors to watch

• CPI surprise: Hot print could strengthen USD and yields — negative beta for BTC.
• Wedge failure: Loss of $108k opens a quick path to $106k retest or lower.
• ETF flow persistence: Continued outflows can weigh on spot liquidity post-news.
• Headline risk: New U.S.–China or policy remarks can abruptly flip risk appetite.

Bottom line

BTC is coiling between $108k and $113k with a macro catalyst dead ahead and mixed ETF signals under the hood. Let the level break first, then trade the confirmation — don’t front-run the print without defined risk. The cleaner the acceptance above $110k, the higher the probability we challenge and potentially pierce $113k; failure there hands control back to sellers toward $108k and $106k.

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