Bitcoin is sitting on a razor’s edge as an upward support trendline from late 2023 meets a market gripped by fear, rising liquidations, and fading momentum. Price whipsawed from $111,711 down to $107,534 and now hovers near $108K, while $89.40M in BTC was liquidated in the last 24 hours. With the Fear & Greed Index at 33 and multiple failed pushes above $115K, the next move around this trendline could define the next leg: a bounce toward $111K—or a deeper correction if that line snaps.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin trades around $108,047 with a market cap near $2.16T. The market has seen $89.40M in BTC liquidations (Coinglass), reflecting nervous positioning. An analyst map highlights a key upward support trendline connecting multiple higher lows since late 2023. Each prior touch produced a bounce; a clean break would be a regime shift. Intraday, BTC rejected just above $111K and retreated, keeping the downtrend intact after repeated failures to reclaim $115K.

Why this matters to traders

Trendline supports are where buyer memory and liquidity concentrate. A defended trendline often sparks swift upside mean reversion; a clean breakdown can accelerate deleveraging, triggering further liquidations and widening moves. With sentiment already in fear, reactive positioning can amplify volatility in both directions.

Key levels to watch

• $108,040 support and former low near $108,033 are immediate lines in the sand.
• Nearby resistances: $108,054 and $108,061 (intraday flips to gauge momentum).
• Upside waypoints: $111,000 and the larger pivot near $115,000.
• The rising daily trendline (late 2023–2025) — monitor the daily close relative to it.

Momentum and flow: what indicators say

MACD and signal line remain below zero, signaling a bearish backdrop and weaker momentum. RSI at 45.65 is neutral-to-bearish; a push back above 50 would signal improving trend strength. CMF at 0.14 points to moderate inflows—accumulation, but not dominance. BBP at -2,225.11 confirms sellers still control the tape. For conviction on a reversal, look for: MACD histogram contracting toward zero, RSI > 50, CMF holding >0.10, and BBP rising toward neutral.

Two scenarios, one plan

If the trendline holds, a bounce toward $111K is in play, but expect supply overhead until $115K is reclaimed. If the trendline breaks, momentum shorts may target liquidity below $108K, with expanding downside volatility likely as stops cascade.

Actionable checklist

• Confirm the close: Focus on the daily close relative to the trendline; avoid front-running wicks.
• Track liquidations: Rising liquidations near key levels can prime sharp reversals—fade only with confirmation.
• Use trigger levels: Intraday reclaims of $108,054–$108,061 can signal attempted momentum shifts; failures keep pressure on supports.
• Wait for confluence: Align structure (trendline), momentum (MACD/RSI), and flow (CMF) before increasing risk.
• Manage risk first: Position size for volatility; predefine invalidation; avoid chasing breakouts without a retest.
• Set alerts: $108,040, $108,061, $111,000, $115,000 to catch the move without overtrading chop.

Bottom line

The market is in fear, momentum is heavy, and the next interaction with the long-running trendline will likely decide whether BTC sees a relief push toward $111K or a deeper correction. Trade the confirmation, not the hope—let the close and indicator confluence lead your risk.

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