ETF money is creeping back into Bitcoin right as price action tightens — and that combo often precedes a bigger move. After a sharp outflow the day before, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs swung to a modest $20.3M net inflow on Oct 23 (SoSoValue), while BTC clawed back above $110,000 and eyes a breakout toward $115,000+. With sentiment still fragile, the next 48 hours could define whether bulls press the advantage or cede ground back to sellers.

What just happened

BlackRock’s IBIT led with $107.8M in net inflows, joined by Fidelity’s FBTC ($7.2M) and Bitwise’s BITB ($17.4M). Those gains offset redemptions from Grayscale’s GBTC ($60.5M) and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB ($55M), underscoring uneven issuer sentiment even as aggregate demand stabilizes.

In contrast, Ethereum ETFs saw another wave of outflows, with about $127.5M in redemptions on Oct 23 and no issuer posting net inflows.

Why it matters now

Flows are a clean proxy for institutional appetite. A return to inflows after a $101.3M outflow the prior day — and after a strong $477M inflow on Oct 21 — signals buyers are testing the waters again. Price-wise, BTC is hovering around $111K after reclaiming the key $110K zone; momentum indicators like the RSI are lifting from the low-40s, hinting at recovery potential.

Key levels to watch

- Resistance: $112,000 (break and hold opens path to $115,800) - Support: $110,000 (loss risks a slide toward $105,000, then $100,000) - Context: Weekly high near $113,940; recent rejection there capped momentum.

Actionable trade setups

• Momentum Breakout: Consider engaging only on a confirmed 1H/4H close above $112,000–$112,300. Typical momentum targets: $114,800 and $115,800. Risk control: invalidate on a close back below $110,800.
• Range Tactics: If price retests $110,000 and holds, range traders may look for quick bounces toward $111,800–$112,000; conversely, a clean rejection at $112,000 can set up short-term fades with tight stops above the level.
• Flow Confirmation: Track daily ETF flows around the U.S. session. A sequence of 2–3 consecutive net inflow days with rising spot volume favors upside continuation; renewed outflows alongside a loss of $110K argue for caution or reduced exposure.
• ETH Relative View: Persistent ETH ETF outflows suggest favoring BTC-led setups until ETH flows stabilize; monitor ETH/BTC for rotation signals.

Risks and invalidation

A failed breakout that rejects near $112K and closes below $110K would weaken structure and invite a move toward $105K. Also note issuer dispersion (IBIT inflows vs. GBTC/ARKB outflows): mixed flows can mute trend strength and increase chop.

Bottom line

Flows are tilting back positive as price compresses under resistance — a classic recipe for a directional push. Let the $112K level and daily ETF flow trend be your guide: confirm strength before chasing, and keep risk tight around $110K.

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