A sudden wave of ETF outflows has slammed into crypto just as Bitcoin hovers near a fragile floor, with long-term holders increasing distribution and options desks loading up on protection. The question gripping traders now: will the $108,000 zone hold—or is the market preparing for a deeper reset before November?

What’s Happening

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net $101M outflow on October 22, even as BlackRock’s IBIT bucked the trend with a $73.6M inflow. Ethereum ETFs mirrored the risk-off tone with a net $18.7M outflow. The move comes amid macro uncertainty following recent tariff headlines and US government funding concerns.

Bitcoin is trading around $110,000, below the short-term holders’ cost basis near $113,100. Analysts flag the $107,000–$108,000 area as increasingly fragile, with spot demand thinning and institutions largely absent during the pullback.

Why It Matters

Price now sits beneath two historically important gauges: short-term holders’ cost basis ($113,100) and the 0.85 quantile ($108,600)—levels often associated with mid-term bearish transitions. The 3–6 month UTXO realized price (~$108,300) acts as a key pivot; a decisive break below suggests holders from the last leg up are under water, raising the risk of forced supply.

Glassnode data shows long-term holders are distributing (> 22,000 BTC/day), while options markets are tilting defensive with rising put demand and elevated implied volatility. Without a rebound in ETF inflows, the market risks prolonged consolidation below $110,000.

Key Levels and Signals to Track

• $113,100: Reclaiming short-term holder cost basis would soften bearish pressure.
• $108,600 and $108,300: Quantile and 3–6m realized-price pivot—hold = potential base, lose = risk of extension lower.
• $107,000–$108,000: Structural support; fragility increases on rising LTH distribution.
• ETF flows: Watch for consecutive days of net inflows as a precondition for sustainable recovery.
• Options: Put skew and IV—rising protection suggests rallies may face supply.

Actionable Game Plan

• Scenario A: Defense of $108k — If price holds above $108,300 and ETF flows flip positive, consider scaling exposure gradually on confirmations (higher lows on the 4H/D, reclaim of $113,100).
• Scenario B: Break and close below $108k — Reduce risk, avoid knife-catching. Wait for a clean reclaim or ETF flow reversal before re-entering.
• Manage risk — Keep position sizes modest, define invalidation near the $107k–$108k band, and avoid over-leverage while IV is elevated.
• Advanced options — In high IV, consider defined-risk structures (e.g., put spreads) over outright puts to manage premium decay.
• ETH watch — With ETH ETFs also seeing outflows, expect beta to BTC; avoid assuming decoupling unless ETH-specific catalysts emerge.

Risk Management Snapshot

• Liquidity: Thin books can exacerbate moves around key levels—use limit orders and staged entries.
• Event risk: Macro headlines can gap the market; hedge or flat around known catalysts.
• Behavioral: LTH selling plus rising puts indicates a cautious tape—fade euphoria, respect invalidations.

The Bottom Line

This market is flow-driven. Without sustained ETF inflows and a decisive reclaim of $113,100, expect chop or downside probes. Let the $108k zone tell the story: hold with improving flows = constructive; lose it on volume = step back and reassess. Discipline beats prediction—trade the confirmations, not the hope.

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