Capital is quietly crowding back into Bitcoin. After six straight weeks of gains, Bitcoin dominance punched above 60% with a sharp wick that caught many alt holders offsides. This move isn’t noise—it’s the market’s way of signaling where capital wants to live next. With many alt/BTC pairs sliding to new cycle lows and ETH/BTC sitting at a pivotal level, the next rotation could accelerate fast—and punish late pivots.

What’s Happening: Dominance Breaks 60%

Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market cap has been grinding higher since early September, finally tagging and wicking above the 60% zone. Historically, rising dominance means capital rotates from altcoins back into BTC. Analysts note several altcoin/BTC pairs have made fresh lows this cycle—clear evidence of underperformance relative to Bitcoin even when USD prices look “okay.” If dominance clears its recent high decisively, expect a cleaner, broader rotation into Bitcoin-led setups.

Why It Matters to Traders

When dominance rises, holding alts can underperform dramatically in BTC terms—even if their USD price bounces. That means your PnL can lag despite green candles. Many alts still trade like penny stocks: timing and liquidity matter more than conviction. In this regime: - Trend-following Bitcoin can be simpler and lower risk than gambling on lagging alts. - Chasing thin microcaps into a dominance uptrend can amplify drawdowns. - Risk management and pair selection (USD vs BTC pairs) become critical to outcomes.

ETH/BTC Is the Toggle

ETH’s relative strength is often the gatekeeper for alt season. If ETH/BTC prints a higher low and reclaims key levels, dominance may stall and a selective alt rally can breathe. If ETH loses ground, dominance has room to run, and alt weakness likely broadens. Watch: - Structure on higher timeframes (weekly swing lows/highs on ETH/BTC) - Momentum shifts around key MAs and volume nodes - Funding, open interest, and spot-led moves confirming trend changes

Action Plan: Positioning for Rotation

• Align bias with BTC.D: While dominance holds above 60% and trends up, prioritize BTC exposure and be selective with alts.
• Measure in BTC terms: Track your alts against BTC pairs. Consistent lower lows on ALT/BTC = consider rotating into BTC strength.
• Adjust risk: Reduce leverage on alt perps, tighten stops, and size smaller in illiquid names during a dominance uptrend.
• Use ETH/BTC as your signal: If ETH/BTC bases and breaks up on strong volume, gradually rotate into high-liquidity, high-quality alts—don’t front-run.
• Trade strong vs weak: Favor BTC-led setups and only touch alts showing relative strength versus BTC with clear catalysts and liquidity.
• Have scenarios: If dominance breaks to new highs with weak ETH/BTC, lean into BTC trend. If dominance stalls and ETH/BTC turns up, scale into selective alts.
• Avoid narratives without data: Emotional takes on “alt season soon” are costly. Let the charts confirm rotation before committing.

Cycle Playbook: Clean-Up Before Quality Runs

Rising dominance often precedes a market clean-up: weak leverage gets flushed and low-quality projects fade. That reset can set the stage for select durable projects to lead the next leg once Bitcoin stabilizes. Focus on assets with real usage, strong liquidity, and verifiable progress; let price confirm the turn before going heavy on alts.

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