Bitcoin’s grip on the market just slipped—and traders are taking notice. With Bitcoin dominance dipping below 60% for the first time since January as Ethereum rockets toward its all-time high, the classic altseason signal is flickering on. Yet the data isn’t unanimous, making this a prime environment for disciplined rotation, fast momentum plays, and tight risk management—not blind FOMO.

What just happened

Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market has been trending lower since late June as Ether woke up. This week, BTC.D slid below 60%, while ETH jumped ~8% to around $4,670—within striking distance of its 2021 peak. Majors followed: SOL +12% near $200, ADA +9% to $0.86, LINK +13% to $24.50, LTC +11% to $133, while BTC held around $119,350.

Signal quality is mixed: CoinMarketCap’s altseason index sits at a relatively low 37/100, but Blockchain Center’s index prints 53, reflecting rising strength in large-cap alts. Some analysts project BTC dominance could fall toward 45% over the next six months—levels historically associated with explosive alt performance—but confirmation is not yet in.

Why it matters for your P&L

When BTC dominance falls, capital often rotates into alts, lifting returns—but also increasing volatility and drawdown risk. Rotations can be swift and uneven: large-caps typically move first (ETH, SOL, LINK), then mid-caps, while illiquid names can overshoot and retrace hardest. A sharp BTC bounce or macro headline can unwind alt gains in hours. Navigating this phase requires treating rotation as a trade, not a narrative.

Key charts to watch

• BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance): Weekly trend; watch 58–55% as near-term pivots; sustained breakdown opens 50–45%.
• ETH/BTC: Strength here confirms alt leadership; daily close above recent range highs typically fuels broader alt bids.
• TOTAL2 (alt market cap ex-BTC): Higher highs with rising volume signal healthier breadth.
• Funding + OI: Elevated funding and crowded longs raise squeeze risk during rotations.

Actionable game plan (not financial advice)

• Target liquidity first: Prefer high-liquidity majors showing trend confirmation (e.g., ETH, SOL, LINK) before moving down the risk curve.
• Use tranches: Scale in/out to reduce timing risk; avoid chasing +15–20% daily candles.
• Define invalidation: Place stops below structure (prior higher lows/MA supports) and size positions so a stopped trade is acceptable.
• Rotate profits: Harvest into BTC or stables on vertical moves; keep winners on a trailing stop to capture continuation.
• Track ETH/BTC: If ETH/BTC rejects, expect alt momentum to fade; tighten risk.
• Mind leverage: Elevated perp funding + rising OI often precede flushes—reduce exposure during crowded periods.
• Set alerts: BTC.D 58–55% breaks, ETH/BTC range highs, and TOTAL2 new highs with volume.

Risks to respect

• Dominance snapback: A BTC impulse rally can drain alt liquidity and trigger broad pullbacks.
• Mixed signals: Divergent altseason indices imply choppy conditions; don’t overcommit without confirmation.
• Liquidity traps: Lower-cap alts can gap both ways; stick to venues and pairs with depth.
• Headline risk: Regulatory or macro surprises can flip rotation dynamics quickly.

Bottom line

Early altseason signals are appearing, led by ETH strength and a weakening BTC.D, but confirmation is incomplete. Let the market prove it: watch BTC.D lose 55–50% and ETH/BTC break higher with breadth. Trade the rotation with liquidity, structure, and discipline—and keep a plan for reversals.

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