Bitcoin Cash has snapped back into its rising channel just as momentum and macro winds align—setting up a high-stakes test of the heavy **$630–640** wall. With price coiling around **$590–600** and RSI mid-range, the next decisive push could either unlock a run toward **$700** or send BCH back to reload at support. Here’s how to trade the inflection—without getting trapped in a fakeout.

What the Chart Is Saying Now

BCH has respected an ascending channel through 2025, with firm demand near **$500–520** and supply into **$680–700**. A late-August wobble below the channel was swiftly reclaimed, carving out fresh support near **$525**. Current consolidation around the midline (**$590–600**) means the next volatility burst will likely decide direction.

RSI Confluence: Timing Entries and Exits

RSI has mirrored the channel: bids emerged when RSI tagged **40–42**, while rallies cooled near **70**. Today, RSI sits near **55–56**, leaving room to build. A thrust toward **$630–640** with RSI pushing above **60–65** strengthens breakout odds; conversely, an RSI rollover toward **40–45** warns of a revisit to mid/lower channel.

Macro Tailwinds You Shouldn’t Ignore

Soft U.S. labor data has raised odds of earlier Fed rate cuts, a classic liquidity boost for risk assets. Meanwhile, anticipation around more crypto ETF approvals is supporting large-cap flows. Together, these factors favor upside follow-through if technicals trigger—but they also amplify volatility around data drops.

Key Levels and Scenarios

• Bullish: Sustained break above **$630–640** (preferably with rising volume) opens a run to **$680–700**. A clean channel breakout above **$700** invites momentum extension.
• Neutral: Range hold around **$590–600** while RSI stays midrange—wait for catalyst or clear signal.
• Bearish: Rejection at **$630–640** pulls back toward **$560**. A decisive loss of **$500–520** invalidates the channel and exposes deeper downside.

Action Plan for Traders

• Set alerts at $630, $640, $560, $525, and $700.
• For breakouts, look for a 4H/1D close above $640 with increasing volume and RSI > 60. Consider partial entries to manage slippage.
• Define invalidation: for swing longs, a close back below $625 after breakout, or below $525 if trading the range.
• Size positions conservatively into resistance; add on confirmation rather than chasing wicks.
• Monitor macro calendar (CPI, jobs, Fed communications) and BTC dominance—risk-off pivots can unwind alt rallies fast.

Risk Factors to Watch

False breaks at **$630–640** are common; demand confirmation via volume and higher lows. A sharp BTC drawdown can compress BCH beta. If price slices through **$500–520**, step back—trend thesis is likely broken until reclaimed.

Bottom Line

As long as **$525** holds, structure and macro lean bullish. The trade with best asymmetry is a confirmed break and hold above **$640** targeting **$680–700**, with tight invalidation if momentum fades. Patience at the level—and discipline on risk—will decide your edge.

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