Bitcoin’s bull engine just coughed. After a sharp pullback, BTC is compressing beneath the 100-day MA (~$114K) and clinging to the 200-day MA (~$108K). Bounces are getting weaker, RSI is stuck near 40, and on-chain SOPR < 1 says short-term holders are realizing losses. Translation: a decisive move is brewing, and a retest of $100K is back on the table unless bulls reclaim control quickly.

What’s happening now

Daily structure shows a series of lower highs since the September peak, with BTC stuck between $108K–$116K. The 200D MA is acting as dynamic support, but losing the 100D MA signals fading momentum. On the 4H chart, repeated tests of trendline support with softer bounces point to buyer exhaustion. If the rising trendline breaks, the path toward $100K opens fast.

Why it matters to traders

The 200D MA is the market’s regime line. A firm break below it often triggers trend acceleration as systematic strategies de-risk. Meanwhile, Short‑Term Holder SOPR (30DMA) < 1 indicates rallies are being sold into—classic distribution. Until SOPR sustainably reclaims 1, short-lived pops are likely to fade, making location and timing critical.

Key levels to watch

- $116K: Supply cap of the current range - $114K: 100D MA; reclaiming flips momentum positive - $110K: Intraday pivot; early tell for strength/weakness - $108K: 200D MA + trendline; losing it invites volatility - $100K: Major psychological and spot support

Actionable playbook

• Breakdown setup: If BTC closes a 4H below $108K with rising volume, look for a quick drive to $103K–$100K. Consider scaling in only on confirmed retests of broken support (now resistance). Invalidate above $110K. Avoid knife-catching near $100K; wait for absorption and a higher low.
• Reclaim setup: If price reclaims $114K on strong volume and 4H RSI pushes above mid‑50s, target the $114K–$116K supply zone. Invalidate on a close back below $112K. Acceptance above $116K would open extension toward prior inefficiencies; trail stops aggressively.
• Range strategy: While inside $108K–$116K, fade edges lightly with tight stops and reduced size. Breakout/breakdown likely carries follow-through after so many tests.

On-chain confirmations to track

• SOPR (STH) reclaim > 1: Signals buyers can push through supply; improves odds of sustained upside.
• Spot-led flows: Bullish if up-moves are driven by spot volume rather than derivatives leverage.
• Funding/OI resets: Cleaner long entries after leverage flushes at range extremes.

Risk management edge

- Expect fakeouts around the 200D MA; demand confirmation (close + retest + volume). - Size down into event risk and widen stops only if you cut position size accordingly. - Use alerts at $108K, $110K, and $114K to react, not chase.

Bottom line

Momentum is tilting fragile beneath the 100D MA and over the 200D MA—a classic decision zone. Bulls must reclaim $114K with conviction; bears need a clean break of $108K to press $100K. Trade the confirmation, not the noise.

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