Bitcoin is 13% off its $126,000 all-time high and the market is split: is the top already in—or is a final leg higher brewing? A confirmed bearish MACD crossover on the 3‑week chart, a bearish engulfing candle, and a sharp decline in on-chain activity point to exhaustion. Yet range structure, ETF momentum, and the Mayer Multiple argue there’s still room to run. Here’s what’s actually moving the tape—and how traders can navigate it.

What’s happening right now

Bitcoin fell about 3% Thursday and sits 13% below its Oct. 6 ATH. On the 3‑week chart, the MACD line has crossed below its signal—historically seen near the 2017 and 2021 peaks—while a bearish engulfing candle echoes prior cycle tops. On-chain, daily active addresses dropped roughly 30% in October (from ~632,915 to ~447,225), signaling waning network engagement. Meanwhile, price action shows a higher low on the daily, with traders eyeing a reclaim of the $116K region to reignite momentum.

Why this matters to traders

These signals are colliding with Bitcoin’s halving clock. It’s been 558 days since the 2024 halving—right inside the historical 518–580 day window where prior cycles peaked. If cycle behavior persists, upside time is limited. If the cycle is evolving (ETF flows, liquidity, macro), dips could be opportunity. The edge comes from preparing for both.

The bear case in focus

- Confirmed 3‑week MACD cross and long-term bearish divergence. - Bearish engulfing pattern on the same timeframe, seen near prior cycle tops. - On-chain demand cooling: active addresses down ~30% in October.

Together, these raise the risk of a cycle top or a multi-week consolidation.

The bull case still alive

- Daily structure printed a higher low; range conditions are intact. - A potential bullish megaphone pattern hints at an upside breakout if momentum returns. - The Mayer Multiple suggests BTC sits closer to “oversold” than “overheated,” keeping the $180,000 target on the table if key levels are reclaimed and flows improve.

Actionable game plan

• Define your trigger levels: A sustained reclaim of $116K signals trend resumption; failure to hold the current range increases top risk.
• Validate the signal, not the candle: Wait for the next 3‑week close to confirm MACD and engulfing follow-through before sizing up.
• Watch demand, not just price: Track daily active address trends. A persistent rebound in activity strengthens any breakout.
• Flow and macro check: Monitor ETF net flows and liquidity shifts (e.g., Fed balance sheet signals). Positive flows can negate bearish technicals.
• Risk first: Use staggered entries, tight invalidations below prior swing lows, and avoid leverage creep in a mixed-signal regime.

The takeaway: Respect the 3‑week bearish signals and halving window timing, but don’t front-run a top while the daily range holds. Let $116K and on-chain demand confirm your bias; trade the break, not the guess.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.