Bitcoin is quietly coiling near six figures, and the market’s biggest players are setting the tone. Fresh CryptoQuant research points to a late-stage consolidation with support at $100,000 and resistance around $115,000. Institutions have reportedly absorbed ~681,000 BTC in 2025, while accumulation is slowing—an environment where dolphins/whales and ETF flows can push price rapidly in either direction. One clean hold could ignite continuation; one slip could expose an air pocket down to $75,000.

What the data says right now

Short-term momentum has weakened, but the current bull cycle remains intact, with CryptoQuant flagging $100,000 as crucial near-term support. Market structure shows maturity—not completion—suggesting a high-probability range between $100,000–$115,000. Large holders (ETFs, corporates) have concentrated supply, reducing float and amplifying the impact of marginal flows. If $100,000 fails decisively, historical patterns suggest deeper retracements become more likely.

Why this matters to traders

A concentrated holder base can create gap risk—thin liquidity pockets where price moves quickly. In late-stage consolidations, mean-reversion and sudden stop-runs are common, especially around round numbers like $100k. Regulatory headlines and macro surprises can turn a benign range into a swift trend, making risk management more important than direction calls.

Actionable playbook for the next moves

• Define your range: plan for $100k support and $115k resistance. Avoid bias—trade the reaction.
• For bounces: look for reclaims (e.g., 4H/1D close back above $100k after a sweep) and scale out into $112k–$115k.
• For breakdowns: wait for confirmed closes below $100k, then use failed retests as low-risk short entries; map targets in steps (e.g., mid-90s, high-80s, potential $75k).
• Size smaller near extremes; volatility can expand quickly. Use hard invalidations, not mental stops.
• Consider hedges (e.g., protective puts or spread structures) instead of exiting core spot exposures.
• Favor limit entries at liquidity pools; chase less, react more. Let price come to your levels.
• Adjust leverage to funding/OI conditions; elevated OI with positive funding increases squeeze risk.

Key levels and signals to monitor

• $100,000: hold, sweep-and-reclaim, or clean loss (watch 4H/1D closes).
• $115,000: acceptance above = potential trend continuation; repeated rejection = range persists.
• ETF net flows: strong daily inflows/outflows can tilt the tape.
• Whale activity: large on-chain transfers and exchange inflows/outflows from known entities.
• Exchange reserves and stablecoin liquidity: gauge available buy/sell pressure.
• Funding and Open Interest: crowded positioning raises squeeze probability.
• Regulatory calendar: policy headlines can accelerate moves during consolidation.

Bottom line

The bull cycle is active but delicate: respect $100k as line-in-the-sand support and $115k as the gate to continuation. Build a rules-based plan for both scenarios, manage size, and let the market confirm before committing. If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.