Bitcoin’s first days of September are defying the usual “September curse,” grinding sideways just above the psychologically heavy $110,000 zone after a year of wild swings. Volatility is compressed, sellers look exhausted, and the tape resembles classic pre-breakout bases seen ahead of 2017 and 2020 surges. The question isn’t whether momentum will return—it’s which side gets run first, and how you’ll trade it.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin is consolidating near ~$110,700, with support at $110,000 and a deeper backup level near $100,000. Resistance sits in the $120,000 area after a mid-2025 peak. The structure is textbook “re-equilibrium”: rangebound price, waning impulse, and signs of accumulation by long-term holders—conditions that often precede expansion. Historically (2015, 2019, 2020, 2021), similar bases have set the stage for parabolic legs once supply is absorbed.

Why this matters to traders

Compressed ranges breed outsized moves. A clean break from this coil can reprice quickly, catching late responders. With clear levels above/below and seasonal skeptics on the sidelines, the risk/reward around a confirmed breakout or a failed breakdown is attractive—if you define invalidation and avoid chasing wicks.

Levels and confirmations

Watch: - $120,000: Daily close above with rising volume and strong perp basis suggests trend resumption; look for a retest/hold as confirmation. - $110,000: Range floor. Reclaims after deviations signal buyer strength; repeated closes below invite a run to $100,000. - $100,000: Major psychological level and potential liquidity pocket; expect whipsaws and forced liquidations around here.

Confirmation tools: expanding volume, rising open interest without excessive funding spikes, improving spot-led impulse, and positive ETF net flows.

Actionable trade setups

• Breakout plan: Wait for a daily close above $120k + volume expansion. Enter on the first clean retest of $120k–$121k; invalidation just back inside the range. Consider partial targets at $125k–$128k; trail the rest.
• Range plan: Fade extremes with tight risk. Look for a sweep/deviation below $110k that reclaims the level; target mid-range then $118k. Invalidate on a 4H close back below $110k.
• Deeper dip: If $110k fails, stalk capitulation wicks into $100k with clear reclaim criteria (5–15m reclaim → 1H hold). Keep sizes smaller; volatility will be elevated.
• Risk controls: Pre-set stops, cap leverage, and size so a single invalidation costs <3% of equity. Avoid entering during funding spikes or liquidation cascades.
• Data checklist: Track funding, OI, spot vs. perp lead, BTC ETF net flows, DXY and UST yields. A dollar spike can spoil breakouts.

Risks and fakeouts

Round numbers ($110k, $120k, $100k) attract liquidity hunts. Expect stop-runs and failed breaks before the real move. Altcoins can lag or whipsaw during BTC expansion; keep rotation risk in mind. Macro prints and policy headlines can flip the tape intraday—don’t widen stops into event risk.

Bottom line

The play is simple and disciplined: either buy confirmed strength above $120k on a retest, or buy reclaimed deviations around $110k/$100k with tight invalidations. Let the market prove direction; you manage risk and execution.

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