Bitcoin’s months-long climb just snapped, and the break matters: price sliced below the lower bound of a rising wedge, shifting control to sellers and putting $111K squarely in play. With BTC hovering near $115K, the next reclaim or rejection around this pivot will likely decide whether we get a controlled pullback or a swift slide toward the six-figure magnet. Here’s what changed—and how to trade it with discipline.

What Just Broke—and Why It Matters

BTC rallied from $73K to near $128K inside a rising wedge, but a decisive breakdown candle flipped prior support into resistance. The immediate demand is $111K–$112K (June consolidation). Lose it, and the chart points to $105K–$108K; an extreme flush could probe $98K–$100K, a psychological level likely stacked with bids.

Market Structure: From Higher Lows to Lower Highs

Momentum has turned from higher lows to emerging lower highs. The broken wedge trendline now acts as overhead resistance, creating a “sell-the-rip” environment until reclaimed. Even without volume data, the breakdown’s range and failed retests signal bearish control in the short term.

Trade Setups to Consider

• Pivot reclaim (reactive long): Wait for a 4H close back above $112K with follow-through. Targets: $116K then $118K. Invalidation: sustained return below $111.5K.
• Rally fade (trend short): Look for rejection at the wedge underside or $116K–$118K. Invalidation: clean break and hold above $118.5K. Targets: $112K → $108K–$105K.
• Dip-bid (spot only, scaled): Consider staggered entries at $108K–$105K and $101K–$100K if momentum cools. Use staged stops and expect high volatility; avoid leverage near $100K.
• Risk control: Size down, widen stops thoughtfully, and avoid chasing breakdown candles. Let levels come to you.

Key Confirmation Signals

• Acceptance below $111K: Multiple 4H closes under the level increase odds of a slide toward $108K–$105K.
• Reclaim and hold $112K: Shifts bias to a relief move toward $116K–$118K.
• Wedge underside reaction: Strong rejection there reinforces the downtrend; a clean reclaim weakens it.
• Volatility and liquidity: Rising ATR and cluster of liquidations near round numbers often precede sharp wicks—plan entries, don’t market-chase.

Scenario Map for the Next Sessions

• Bullish repair: Reclaim $112K → tag $116K–$118K → set a higher low above $112K.
• Bearish continuation: Lose $111K → probe $108K–$105K → potential liquidity sweep near $100K.

Why This Matters Now

The wedge break doesn’t kill the broader uptrend from April, but it resets the short-term structure. That means opportunity for disciplined traders and traps for impatient ones. Respect the $111K–$112K pivot: it’s the line between stabilization and acceleration.

Bottom Line

One actionable takeaway: trade the $112K pivot, not your bias. Let a reclaim or a clean loss of the level dictate direction, and predefine invalidations before entering.

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