Bitcoin’s surge to fresh highs above $124,000 has snapped back fast — and the tape just threw a warning. Price has sliced below a key bullish trendline, weekly momentum has rolled over from overbought, and sellers are pressing their advantage. If you’re trading BTC this week, your edge will come from respecting levels, waiting for confirmation, and managing risk with precision.

What just happened

BTC is down over 7% from last week’s peak after repeated failures to hold above the $122,056 Fibonacci “golden ratio” and a long-term resistance trendline connecting the 2017 and 2021 cycle highs. On the daily chart, price has broken below the rising trendline from April, following a bearish outside-day that signaled seller dominance.

Why this matters to traders

A rollover of the weekly stochastic from the >80 zone historically increases the odds of a multi-week pullback. Coupled with a lost uptrend line on the daily, the path of least resistance near-term tilts lower — unless bulls quickly reclaim critical levels to negate the break.

Key levels to watch

• Bear invalidation: Reclaim and hold above $118,600 (Sunday’s high) reduces immediate downside risk.
• Resistance: $120,000 • $122,056 (61.8% Fib) • $124,429 (high supply zone).
• Support: $111,982 (recent pivot) • $105,295 (31.8% Fib of Apr–Aug rally) • $100,000 (near 200D SMA).

Actionable playbook (short-term)

• Define bias by level: Below $118,600, favor sell-the-rip into $120k–$122k with tight stops; above it, stand aside or rotate to long setups on dips.
• Wait for confirmation: Look for lower highs on 1H–4H near resistance or a daily close back above the broken trendline for reversal risk.
• Risk first: Keep position size light into $112k and $105k magnets; volatility can spike into key supports.
• Hedge smart: Consider short-dated put spreads into $105k–$100k to cap downside while preserving upside if $118.6k reclaims.
• Set alerts: $118,600, $112,000, $105,300, and the $100k 200D SMA to react, not predict.

Alternate scenario and risks

A swift squeeze through $118,600 and acceptance above $120k would weaken the bear case and open a path back to $122,056 and $124,429. Watch macro catalysts (e.g., policy commentary this week) that can flip risk appetite quickly and invalidate technicals in the short run.

Bottom line

Momentum is cooling, the trendline is lost, and sellers control the tape — unless bulls reclaim $118.6k. Trade the levels, not the narrative, and let confirmation drive your next move.

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