Bitcoin’s slide to $108,000 triggered a fresh wave of fear as ETF outflows lit up the tape and $693 million in positions were liquidated across top exchanges. Sentiment whiplashed: critics like Peter Schiff called for a deeper bear, while long-term bulls including Changpeng Zhao reiterated Bitcoin’s structural uptrend. Beneath the noise, price is coiling in the most-watched zone of the year, with traders eyeing the $100k–$115k band around the 200-day EMA for the next decisive break.

What just happened

Bitcoin fell from its July peak near $123,000 to around $108,000, dragging majors like Ethereum and XRP and pressuring memecoins such as Dogecoin. The driver: sustained ETF outflows and cascading liquidations that thinned order books and amplified intraday moves. Despite the volatility, institutional interest remains resilient, with a reported 40% surge in corporate Bitcoin adoption in Q3 2025—evidence that large players are integrating BTC even as spot price chops.

Why this matters to traders

- Flows lead: persistent ETF net outflows often align with weaker spot and heightened wick risk. - Liquidity risk rises near round numbers: $100k and $115k act as liquidity magnets where stop clusters sit. - Trend tests: the 200-day EMA zone is a battleground; reclaiming and holding above it can flip bias back to trend-following from mean-reversion. - Narrative bifurcation: bearish macro takes vs. long-horizon adoption create two-way volatility—great for disciplined range traders, brutal for overleveraged chasers.

Actionable game plan

• Trade the range, don’t marry it: Map $100k–$115k. Favor mean-reversion until a daily close and follow-through invalidate the band.
• Let ETF flows guide risk: Review daily net flows; reduce leverage or hedge on strong outflow days. Expand risk only on improving flow breadth.
• Use structured entries: Ladder bids toward range lows and scale out into mid-range; set hard stops beyond invalidation, not inside noise.
• Respect liquidation dynamics: Avoid adding into cascading moves. Wait for a flush + rebound (sweep, reclaim, hold) before engaging.
• Options for protection: In choppy regimes, finance downside puts with call spreads rather than over-sizing perps.
• Alt and memecoin caution: Liquidity thins fastest in risk-off. Treat Dogecoin and other memes as highly speculative; size small and use tight risk controls.

Risks to respect

- Continued ETF outflows prolong drawdowns and whipsaws. - Sudden regulatory headlines can gap markets beyond stops. - Weekend liquidity deserts exacerbate slippage and stop cascades. - Cross-asset shocks (rates, dollar strength, gold rallies) can pressure BTC beta.

Signals to watch next

- Daily spot ETF net flows and primary market creations/redemptions. - Positioning: funding rates and open interest—rising OI with negative funding into support often precedes short squeezes; the inverse warns of bull traps. - The 200-day EMA reaction: acceptance above shifts playbook from fade-the-rally to buy-the-dip. - Corporate treasury updates and custody/infra headlines that validate long-term demand.

Bottom line

Until flows improve or the $115k lid breaks with conviction, expect chop within $100k–$115k. Trade the range with discipline, size modestly, and let ETF flows and the 200-day EMA be your compass.

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