Traders just got the green light they were waiting for: Bitcoin reclaimed **$110K**, flipped the **200-day EMA (~$109K)** back to support, and is pressing into a textbook **W-bottom** neckline at **$111.2K–$111.5K**. Momentum is turning—**RSI** has pushed into the high-50s/60s, and **MACD** has crossed up on the 1H/4H—yet the next few candles will decide whether this is a clean breakout or another liquidity trap. The question now isn’t “if” but “how” price behaves at the line in the sand: **$111.5K**.

What Just Happened

Bitcoin rebounded to around **$110,697**, up nearly **2%** from the prior close, and reclaimed the **200-day EMA**—a widely watched regime filter separating pullbacks from continuations. A **W-bottom** has formed between **$103K** and **$111K**, with the neckline at **$111.2K–$111.5K**. A decisive close above that band would confirm structure and unlock a path to **$114K–$115K**, where prior resistance and key averages converge.

Why This Matters to Traders

- The **200-day EMA** back as support suggests the broader uptrend remains intact. - A neckline break often triggers a **measured move**, attracting trend-followers and systematic flows. - **Volatility remains moderate**, hinting at accumulation over chase—breakouts in this context can move cleanly if volume expands. - Early signs of **institutional participation** add fuel to upside continuations when key levels give way.

Key Levels and Scenarios

• Breakout Confirmation: 4H or daily close above $111.5K with expanding volume. Upside magnet at $114K–$115K.
• Failed Break / Fade: Wick above $111.5K that closes back below the band suggests a bull trap. Mean reversion targets: $109K then $108K–$106K.
• Range Continuation: Stalled momentum below $111.5K keeps the chop intact, favoring buy-the-dip near support and de-risk near resistance.

Actionable Game Plan

• Trade the close, not the wick: Wait for a 4H/daily close and volume expansion above $111.5K before treating it as confirmed.
• Define risk: On breakout continuation setups, consider invalidation below the breakout level or the $109K 200-day EMA pivot.
• Scale targets: Take partials into $114K–$115K; trail stops to prior higher lows to protect gains.
• Range plan: If price rejects $111.5K, look for reaction at $109K and $108K–$106K supports; avoid chasing mid-range.
• Check confluence: Monitor RSI holding 50+ on 4H and an expanding positive MACD histogram for sustained momentum.

Risks to Watch

- **False breakouts** around round numbers and crowded necklines. - **Low-liquidity sweeps** during session overlaps and weekends. - **Macro headlines** or unexpected regulatory news that can flip risk sentiment. - **Derivatives skew:** Rapid build-up in long leverage without spot demand raises liquidation risk.

Bottom Line

Above **$111.5K**, the market signals a short-term **structural reversal** with room toward **$114K–$115K**. Below it, BTC remains a range market with well-defined supports at **$109K** and **$108K–$106K**. Let price confirm, manage risk tightly, and trade the level—not the bias.

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