Bitcoin is holding near $108,000 and looks resilient on the surface, yet multiple on-chain and technical signals are flashing caution: if price fails to swiftly reclaim the critical $119,750 zone, downside targets at $97,130 and even $74,500 come into focus. At the same time, some analysts argue we’ve entered the second phase of an altcoin upcycle—setting up a volatile push-pull between potential BTC weakness and selective altcoin strength amid U.S. earnings and geopolitical headlines that could jar liquidity.

What’s Happening Now

Analyst Ali Martinez highlights the need for Bitcoin to reclaim the $119,750 resistance to invalidate deeper drawdowns. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin MVRV trend shared by Mr. Crypto shows consecutive lower peaks, a pattern consistent with waning upside momentum. In contrast, Henrik Zeberg maintains that the altcoin bull run started in June and is now in its second phase, implying BTC dominance could ease after a secondary surge. Ethereum trades around $3,800, and traders are bracing for elevated volatility with key U.S. corporate earnings and political events in focus.

Why This Matters to Traders

A 15–20% BTC correction from current levels would likely amplify stress in illiquid altcoins, where over $16B in potential liquidations could exacerbate moves. If BTC dominance stalls or turns lower after a brief pop, capital may rotate into high-quality alts—but only those with strong liquidity and catalysts are likely to outperform. The setup favors quick shifts: strength above resistance could squeeze shorts, while failure could accelerate a cascade toward the mid-to-high $90Ks.

Key Levels and Signals

• BTC resistance: $119,750 (reclaim/close above to reopen $125K–$130K).
• Near-term supports: Psychological $100,000; structural $97,130; max bear target eyed at $74,500.
• On-chain: MVRV lower highs signal reduced marginal upside—watch for a decisive break in this trend to confirm new momentum.
• Dominance/rotation: Monitor BTC.D and ETH/BTC; a rising ETH/BTC alongside stable BTC is a constructive alt setup.

Actionable Game Plan

• Set alerts: $119,750 reclaim, $100,000 loss, $97,130 touch—trade the reaction, not the prediction.
• Define invalidation: For longs, sustained rejection below $119,750 weakens the case; for shorts, daily close above it invalidates.
• Hedge and size: Use smaller position sizes into binary levels; consider options or partial hedges around earnings windows.
• Altcoin selection: Favor high-liquidity, high-catalyst names; avoid thin books during BTC volatility spikes.
• Watch derivatives: Funding, open interest, and liquidation heatmaps can front-run squeezes or cascades.

Risks and Catalysts

Earnings from Tesla, SAP, and IBM, plus geopolitical headlines, can shock volatility and correlations. If DOGE or other memecoins catch a bid, remember these are highly speculative assets with weak fundamentals—treat rallies with extra caution and strict risk controls.

Scenario Map

• Bullish reclaim: Break and hold above $119,750 → momentum extension to $125K–$130K; selective alt strength later as dominance cools.
• Chop and fade: Rejections below resistance → range-bound whipsaws; prioritize mean-reversion trades and tight stops.
• Breakdown: Loss of $100K → liquidity vacuum toward $97,130; failure there raises risk of a fast move to the $74,500 zone.

Bottom Line

Respect the levels: the market hinges on the $119,750 reclaim versus a slide toward $97,130–$74,500. Keep playbooks flexible—trade confirmations, control size, and let the tape tell you when to rotate between BTC defense and selective alt offense.

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