Bitcoin just vaulted past $110,000 and Ethereum reclaimed $4,000, but the headline candles aren’t the whole story. Beneath the surface, a three-engine rally is pushing risk back on: falling bond yields (U.S. 10Y sub-4%), resurgent ETF inflows, and visible whale accumulation. Momentum traders are chasing, shorts are covering, and liquidity is pooling right below multi-month resistance. If you’ve been waiting for confirmation, this is where discipline pays more than excitement.

What just happened

Across 24 hours, BTC +3%+ sliced through 109k and probed 111k, while ETH +3.7% reclaimed the 4k handle with a bullish continuation structure. Total crypto market cap jumped ~3% to about $3.75T, with leaders like BNB, SOL, and XRP popping >5% as beta followed BTC’s break. The tone flipped risk-on as bond yields fell, gold firmed, and crypto ETFs saw renewed net inflows.

Why this matters to traders now

Lower yields and potential rate-cut expectations mechanically support duration and risk assets; in crypto that often translates to range expansion, higher beta outperformance, and tighter short squeezes. Crucially, sentiment has inflected: positive flow + technical breaks invite systematic and momentum capital—until key resistance rejects.

Key levels and setups

• BTC: Resistance at 112k–115k. A 4H/D close above 115k opens 118k–120k. Clean retest of 112k turning to support is a higher-probability continuation entry. Invalidation for breakout longs: below 109k (failed break/absorption).
• ETH: Watching a bullish flag. Break and hold above $4,100–$4,150 targets $4,400–$4,500. Invalidation on momentum longs: back inside the flag or below $3,950.
• Rotations: If BTC stalls under 115k but dominance stabilizes, expect selective alt follow-through (SOL/BNB/L2s). If dominance spikes, prioritize BTC/ETH over alts.

Flows and macro tells to monitor

• Spot BTC ETF net flows: Three consecutive positive sessions reinforce trend; an abrupt outflow day near resistance warns of a fade.
• U.S. 10Y yield: Staying <4% supports risk appetite; a sharp reversal higher often caps crypto breakouts.
• Funding and OI: Rising funding + surging open interest into resistance = squeeze risk both ways. Favor spot or reduce leverage.
• Stablecoin netflows to exchanges and whale accumulation on-chain to confirm sustained demand.
• Event risk: Next U.S. inflation print and geopolitical headlines (e.g., Trump–Xi) can flip the tape intraday.

Risk controls in a momentum swing

• Trade levels, not FOMO: wait for break-and-retest or clear rejection wicks.
• Use hard stops just beyond invalidation, not “mental” stops.
• Size down on elevated funding and into major resistance.
• Take partials at first targets; move stops to breakeven on continuation.

One actionable takeaway

Build a two-path plan now: if BTC closes above 115k on the daily, enter a staged breakout-retest long with targets at 118k/120k and invalidation below 112k. If price rejects 112k–115k with rising funding, flip to a tactical short back toward 109.5k–110k, then reassess for the next leg. For ETH, alerts at $4,150 (break) and $3,950 (invalid) keep you responsive, not reactive.

Bottom line

This move isn’t just green candles—it’s a synchrony of macro, flows, and momentum pressing into crowded levels. Respect the impulse, trade the confirmations, and let flows, yields, and ETF data guide your bias while you manage risk at the edges. If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.