Bitcoin is coiling just beneath a clean breakout line, with buyers defending support on heavy flows while sellers fade every pop near the range top. Momentum is compressed, liquidity is building, and the next decisive close could unlock a swift move—up or down. Are you positioned for the first clean break?

Range in Focus: These Lines Decide the Next Move

Bitcoin held a tight band over the last 24 hours, oscillating between roughly $111,157–$111,634, with supply capping into $111,800–$111,900 and buyers stepping in near $109,800. A decisive UTC close above $112,000 points to the next shelf near $115,000, while a breakdown through $109,800 reopens $108,000—which also aligns with the model’s 200-day reference. The 100-day sits near $115,000, reinforcing the upside target on a confirmed breakout.

Why This Matters to Traders

A compressed range with clearly defined boundaries offers asymmetric opportunity: you either trade the breakout with confirmation or fade the range edges with tight risk. With no dominant catalyst during the window, the tape is signaling that liquidity and positioning—not headlines—are driving the next impulse. That often makes the first clean close beyond the range more reliable than intrabar wicks.

Volume Signals You Shouldn’t Ignore

Buyers showed their hand when volume spiked to about 23,728 BTC (roughly 180% above the 24h average) as price pressed into $109,818 and stabilized—an aggressive defense of support. Into the final hour, turnover cooled from ~135 to ~85 BTC/min while price coiled between $111,540–$111,645. That’s classic consolidation behavior: energy building for a directional release. Expect faster order book thin-outs once $112,000 or $109,800 gives way on a close.

Actionable Playbook

• Breakout Bias: Consider entries only on UTC close above $112,000 with rising volume versus the 24h average; initial target near $115,000. Invalidation below reclaimed $111,800.
• Breakdown Bias: If $109,800 fails on a close, map a quick path to $108,000 (near the 200-day). Invalidation on a swift reclaim back above $110,200–$110,400.
• Range Fades: If no close-trigger appears, fade extreme taps toward $111,900 or $109,800 with tight stops just outside the band; take profits mid-range.
• Risk Controls: Use OCO orders; size down around the break to manage slippage; confirm with multi-timeframe momentum (e.g., 1h/4h both aligned).
• Timing: Watch liquidity windows; the prior peak flow hit around 14:00 UTC, a common inflection period for follow-through.

Cross-Market Context

The CoinDesk 5 Index (CD5) rebounded intraday from 1,920.75 to 1,961.57 before settling near 1,940.94, leaving momentum mixed just under the 1,950 area. That supports a “wait for confirmation” posture: the broader basket is not yet in full risk-on mode, but it’s not risk-off either.

Bottom Line

The market has done the hard work of drawing the map for you: $112,000 unlocks $115,000; lose $109,800 and the $108,000 base is back in play. Let the close and the tape confirm the path, and align position size with the break’s velocity.

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