A surprise cooldown in U.S. inflation just flipped the macro script: Bitcoin ripped above $110,500, Fed cut odds surged to “near-certain,” and right as liquidity returns, Binance-backed Aster launched an aggressive token buyback. Momentum is real—but so are trap risks if key levels fail. Here’s how to trade the setup with discipline.

What just happened

Softer PCE inflation locked in expectations for a near-term rate cut, boosting risk appetite and pushing BTC through $110,500. Liquidity-sensitive assets tend to outperform into easing cycles—if price holds above reclaimed resistance, the path of least resistance stays higher.

Aster’s 70–80% buyback: the mechanics

Aster plans to deploy 70–80% of Season 3 fees to buy tokens on the open market, potentially removing millions in supply from exchanges. Reduced float can tighten spreads, increase slippage on market buys, and support price during dips. The team says allocations depend on market conditions—expect variable, programmatic demand rather than a single spike.

BSC tailwinds and listings

Fresh U.S. listings for BNB are energizing the BSC ecosystem. If BTC holds above $110,500, liquidity and attention typically cascade to satellite assets. That sets the stage for Aster to benefit from both macro (rate cut) and micro (buyback + ecosystem) drivers.

Key levels to trade

• BTC: Hold above $110,500 turns it into support; failed retests risk a swift mean-reversion. Watch funding/OOI for crowding.
• Aster (ASTER): Price stable near $0.94. $1.00 is the psychological pivot; a daily close > $1.13 strengthens a trend reversal narrative. Lose $1.00 with volume → caution for downside extension.

Risks you cannot ignore

Rate cuts can be fully priced before the decision—post-event fade is common. Aster’s buyback is discretionary and conditional, not a guarantee. Ecosystem catalysts (e.g., listings) can spark one-off spikes but fade without sustained flows. Headline risk around large exchanges and regulators can flip sentiment abruptly.

One actionable setup

• BTC momentum: Consider a break-and-retest long on $110,500 with invalidation just below the reclaim; reduce if funding spikes or OI balloons into resistance.
• ASTER confirmation: Conservative approach waits for a daily close above $1.13 and rising volume; scale in small, cut on a close back below $1.00. Aggressive traders can trade the $1.00 pivot as support with tight stops.

What to monitor in real time

• Fed decision and dot plot; 2Y U.S. yields and DXY for macro direction.
• BTC funding, open interest, and spot CVD for synthetic vs. real demand.
• Confirmed Aster buyback executions and exchange depth changes.
• Liquidity around $1.00/$1.13 on ASTER; watch for spoofing and post-break volume follow-through.

Bottom line

Macro easing plus an ecosystem buyback is a potent mix—but only if BTC holds $110,500 and ASTER reclaims and defends $1.00, then $1.13. Trade the levels, not the headlines; let confirmation lead and let invalidations get you out quickly.

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