Bitcoin is coiling just below $110,000 after a failed push to the highs, while deep-pocketed whales reportedly scooped up over 45,000 BTC into the drop. Momentum is cooling (MACD convergence, RSI near 44), liquidity is thinning around key levels, and rumors of an outsized short from a political insider have stoked volatility fears. The next clean move from $108,000 could be fast—either a springboard to reclaim trend, or a flush toward $104,000 support.

What’s Moving Bitcoin Right Now

Price action remains heavy after rejection near $111,000–$112,000, with BTC hovering around $108,000. On-chain data suggests large wallets (10,000–100,000 BTC) increased holdings by 45k+ BTC post-dip, signaling confidence among bigger players. Momentum indicators cool: MACD lines are converging (risk of bearish cross), and RSI ~44 reflects neutral-to-slightly bearish conditions. Unverified speculation about a “Trump insider” opening a large short and selling thousands of BTC underscores headline risk. Treat as unconfirmed market chatter and price-sensitive.

Why This Matters to Traders

When momentum cools into defined levels, market structure and liquidity dominate outcomes. A defense of $108,000 can fuel a squeeze; a clean break below $106,000–$107,000 often accelerates unwinds. Meanwhile, whale accumulation can cushion dips—but doesn’t guarantee immediate upside. In short, levels, confirmation, and flow beat narratives.

Key Levels, Triggers, and Invalidations

• Support: $106,000–$107,000. Loss of this block opens room to $104,000.
• Pivot: $108,000. Holding above shifts bias to mean-reversion; losing it invites trend continuation lower.
• Resistance: Reclaim $110,000 to target $113,000. Failure at $110,000 keeps sellers in control.
• Momentum tells: Bearish if MACD crosses down with price under $108,000; constructive if RSI resets higher on a daily close above $110,000.

Actionable Setups to Consider (Plan, Not Advice)

• Range-reversion: Probe longs near $106,500–$107,500 only on clear hold/absorption, invalidation below $106,000, targets $110,000 then $113,000.
• Breakout-continuation: Wait for a 4H/daily close above $110,000 with rising volume/OI; target $113,000, trail stops under reclaimed level.
• Breakdown-trend: If price accepts below $106,000 on high volume, consider momentum shorts toward $104,000; invalidate on swift reclaim of $107,000.

On-Chain and Flow Signals to Watch

• Whale supply share: Continued rise supports dip-buying; flattening or distribution warns of further downside.
• Exchange net flows: Inflows often precede sell pressure; outflows suggest accumulation.
• Perp funding and OI: Positive funding + rising OI into resistance increases squeeze risk; negative funding with rising OI below support can fuel trend breaks.
• Options skew/IV: Elevated downside skew signals hedging demand; spikes in IV near levels hint at impending volatility.

Risk Management in a Volatile Tape

• Size down into uncertainty; widen stops only if volatility-adjusted and pre-planned.
• Demand confirmation on breaks (close + volume + OI shift), not just wicks.
• Avoid chasing; use pullbacks to reclaimed levels for better R:R.
• Map catalysts and headline risk; rumor-led moves can overshoot both ways.

Bottom Line

$108,000 is the battleground. Holding above favors a push to $110,000–$113,000; losing $106,000–$107,000 exposes $104,000. Let price confirm, track flow, and keep risk tight—whale bids and rumor spikes can both fade quickly.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.