Bitcoin is coiling around $115K as miners quietly step back from exchange selling and scarcity metrics jump—the kind of confluence that has preceded range expansions in prior cycles. With $123K looming overhead and $110K defending below, the next decisive move could set the tone for a push toward $140K or a deeper reset. Here’s what matters—and how to position around it.

Miners Step Back: Selling Pressure Eases

More than 56,000 BTC hit Binance in early September, stoking fear of sustained sell pressure. On-chain now shows a pivot: miners are increasingly holding or selling OTC rather than on exchanges. This moderates near-term supply overhang, but remains fragile—any renewed miner-to-exchange wave would likely cap upside momentum quickly.

Key Levels and Momentum

BTC is bouncing from the $110K–$112K demand zone, with RSI 56 signaling healthy momentum without froth. A decisive reclaim of $123K opens room toward $135K–$140K. Failure to clear and hold that level risks renewed chop; losing $110K invites deeper retracements and a sentiment reset.

Scarcity Tailwind Is Building

Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow metric jumped +11% to 708K, reinforcing the scarcity narrative. Historically, rising S2F has aligned with recovery phases and demand growth. Treat it as a macro tailwind, not a timing tool—paired with cooler miner flows, it strengthens the case for sustained upside when resistance breaks.

Derivatives Are Balanced—For Now

The OI-weighted funding rate sits at +0.0059%: longs still lead, but leverage has cooled versus prior peaks. Balanced funding leaves room for spot-driven accumulation to guide price. Watch for abrupt spikes in funding and open interest—hot leverage often precedes shakeouts.

Actionable Game Plan

• Breakout Plan: Wait for a daily close above $123K with expanding volume and funding ≤ 0.01%. Target $135K–$140K. Invalidation: swift close back below $123K.
• Range Plan: Below $123K, trade the $110K–$123K range. Look for a clean liquidity sweep of $110K–$112K plus cooling funding near flat for a move back to mid-range.
• Risk Control: Size conservatively into confirmation, place stops where your thesis fails (e.g., loss of $110K), and avoid chasing if funding widens above 0.03%.

Risk Flags to Monitor

• Miner inflows spike back to exchanges (e.g., multi‑K BTC/day) — renewed supply headwind.
• Loss of $110K on rising volume — opens downside magnets near $105K and $102K.
• Overheated funding (> 0.02%) while price stalls — raises squeeze risk lower.

Bottom Line

BTC’s next leg hinges on three factors: miners continuing to limit exchange flows, scarcity metrics holding higher, and buyers defending the $110K demand zone. If those align, a clean break of $123K can ignite a trend toward $140K; if not, expect range-bound chop until positioning resets.

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