A $15B options expiry is bearing down on crypto today, and the tape is already twitching: Bitcoin hovers near $111,000 with a max pain at $116,000, while Ethereum trades around $4,450 with max pain at $3,800. With a cautious-but-bullish options skew and month-end flows converging, expect liquidity to thin, hedging to bite, and price to gravitate toward the levels that hurt the most participants.

What’s Happening

$11.7B in BTC options and $3.2B in ETH options expire on Deribit at month-end. Put/Call Ratios sit at 0.79 (BTC) and 0.76 (ETH)—more calls than puts, signaling a still-optimistic stance among options traders. The market’s “max pain” points—$116,000 for BTC and $3,800 for ETH—are the strikes where the largest number of options expire worthless, often acting like short-term magnets as dealers hedge.

Why It Matters

At major expiries, dealer hedging can drive “pinning” toward max pain. That can mean: - BTC: room for a controlled drift higher toward $116K if spot remains bid. - ETH: risk of a pullback toward $3.8K as traders hedge rich upside exposure. Expect volatility pockets into the event and a “gamma unclench” after expiry that can release trend moves in the prevailing direction.

Key Levels to Watch

• BTC: Spot near $111K, max pain $116K. Watch reactions on pushes into $114K–$116K and any sharp rejections below $110K.
• ETH: Spot near $4,450, max pain $3,800. Monitor bounces on dips toward the $4,200–$4,000 corridor; deeper tests increase probability of a magnet toward $3,800.

Actionable Tactics for Traders

• Reduce leverage into expiry; whipsaws are common as liquidity thins.
• Stagger entries around key strikes and round numbers; avoid chasing the first move.
• Use alerts at $116K (BTC) and $3.8K (ETH) to manage risk around likely battle zones.
• Post-expiry reset: reassess after the “pin” effect fades; flows can flip quickly.
• Hedges with tight risk: if directional, define risk via stops or small options hedges rather than size.

Scenario Map (Next 24–48 Hours)

• Base case: BTC grinds toward $116K; ETH mean-reverts toward $4.2K–$4.0K, with deeper pull toward $3.8K possible if liquidity slips.
• Overshoot: A fast BTC push above $116K or ETH reclaiming $4.6K can trigger dealer re-hedging and a short-term squeeze.
• Afterglow: Post-expiry, trend continuation resumes in the direction of broader momentum once hedging pressure eases.

Risk Radar

Beware of wick risk near expiry, temporary liquidity vacuums, and changing funding or basis as positions roll. Keep size disciplined, and trade the reaction, not the prediction.

Bottom Line

Options positioning points to a cautious bullish bias for BTC into $116K and a potential ETH cool-off toward $3.8K. Into month-end, let the flows guide you: respect the magnets, control leverage, and reassess once the expiry dust settles.

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