What if the bull market hasn’t even hit its second act yet? According to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, the global asset rally could extend into 2026—powered by delayed policy reform, continued monetary growth, and potential fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration. For traders, that means the biggest risk may be abandoning a winning macro trend too early—or chasing it without a plan.

What Hayes Is Saying—And Why Now

Hayes argues that political leaders tend to delay tough economic reforms until pressure forces action, implying that broad-based monetary expansion hasn’t fully ramped. If fiscal stimulus and credit growth accelerate, risk assets could enjoy a multi-year tailwind. His core message: markets can remain bid longer than impatient traders can remain solvent.

Implications for Bitcoin: Hedge, Not a Lottery Ticket

Hayes warns against the “easy, quick buck” mindset in Bitcoin. He frames BTC as a **long-term hedge against inflation** and **currency debasement**, not a short-term jackpot. Since 2008, many assets look strong in dollars but lag when measured in gold—while Bitcoin continues to **outperform** on that harder yardstick. The takeaway: prioritize **patience**, not **overleverage**.

Market Snapshot

Bitcoin is trading around **$115,892.57** (+0.49% daily) with a market cap near **$2.3T**. Volume dipped **3.71%** to **$49.17B**, yet liquidity remains stable—signaling **consistent demand** even as turnover cools. For trend traders, that mix often favors **buy-the-dip** tactics over chasing breakouts.

Why This Matters to Traders

If monetary and fiscal support deepen, nominal asset prices can rise while purchasing power erodes—making BTC’s “hard money” profile attractive on multi-year horizons. But extended uptrends still feature violent pullbacks, funding squeezes, and crowded positioning. The edge goes to those who align with the macro trend while controlling **liquidation risk**.

Actionable Playbook (No Hype, Just Process)

• Define your horizon through 2026: structure a **DCA** or staged-entry plan that buys predefined dips (e.g., 10–20%).
• Track key macro drivers: U.S. fiscal packages, **M2** growth, Fed balance sheet changes, Treasury cash balances, and global liquidity gauges.
• Monitor crypto positioning: perp **funding rates**, **open interest**, term basis, spot vs. perp premiums, BTC ETF flows, and stablecoin netflows.
• Use risk rules: cap leverage, size positions so a single loss risks **≤1%** of equity, and set invalidation levels before entering.
• Hedge intelligently: consider protective puts or collars when funding is elevated; keep a slice of **gold** or stables for optionality.
• Measure in “hard” terms: evaluate performance against **gold** and **BTC**, not just dollars, to avoid nominal illusions.
• Execution discipline: prefer pullbacks to prior breakout zones/VWAP retests; avoid FOMO entries in thin liquidity or after large green candles.

Risks To Respect

Policy surprises (smaller-than-expected stimulus), inflation re-acceleration forcing tighter policy, liquidity shocks, and exchange/operational risks can all puncture trend confidence. Elevated leverage increases the probability of **forced liquidations** during routine pullbacks.

Bottom Line

If Hayes is right, the trend still has room—but the advantage goes to traders who stay aligned with the macro, scale in methodically, and protect against volatility spikes. In a cycle defined by **liquidity** and **time**, patience is a strategy, not a slogan.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.