Bitcoin is coiling into one of the tightest ranges of the quarter as volatility dries up and price compresses between rising support and flat resistance—a setup that rarely stays quiet for long. With momentum neutral and order flow skewing toward institutions, the next decisive break could set the tone into year-end. Here’s what’s happening, why it matters, and how to position smartly for the snap.

Triangle Compression, Neutral Momentum

Bitcoin has oscillated between roughly $106,000 and $116,000, forming a tightening triangle. Analyst reads suggest a potential retest of $107,500 before any push toward $115,000. The RSI ~46 and a flat MACD histogram confirm the lack of dominant trend—classic range contraction. In markets like this, range expansion usually follows swiftly once a boundary breaks.

Ownership Shift: Institutions Buy, Retail Waits

Large players continue accumulating dips while retail interest cools. Think of this as an “IPO phase”: early holders distribute, longer-term hands absorb. Meanwhile, ETF inflows and record network hashrate underpin the higher-timeframe bull case, even as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits in fear. That mix often dampens downside tail risk but doesn’t eliminate shakeouts.

Levels That Matter

Watch the near-term pivot at $107,500. A clean break below increases odds of a liquidity sweep toward $105,000. Conversely, acceptance above $115,000 opens space toward the mid-$120,000s. Inside the range, expect fakeouts; confirmation and execution discipline are everything.

Actionable Game Plan

• Range-trade the extremes: consider fading moves near $107,500 support and $115,000 resistance with tight, invalidation-based stops.
• Breakout approach: wait for a 4H close and hold above $115,000 (or below $107,000) with rising volume and RSI expansion (>55 up, <40 down) before entering.
• Retest entries: on a break, look for a throwback to the broken level ($115,000 or $107,500) to manage risk with tighter stops.
• Risk controls: size modestly, use ATR-based stops, avoid overleverage—especially into weekends or major macro headlines.
• Flow tells: track ETF net flows, funding staying near neutral, and open interest spikes; spot-led rallies tend to be healthier than perp-led squeezes.

Risks and Traps

Triangles love to fake-break. Wicks through levels without volume follow-through are common. A swift flush below $107,500 that reclaims the level is a classic bear trap; the inverse applies above $115,000. Don’t chase; let the market prove direction, then trade the retest.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s tight coil means energy is building. Respect $107,500 and $115,000 as the decision zones, let confirmation lead your entries, and keep risk small until volatility returns. The first real expansion out of this range likely sets the path into year-end.

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