Bitcoin’s sharp rebound to near $114,000 fizzled just as spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a solid $241M in net inflows—dip-buying into a historically strong Q4 colliding with macro caution. With Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaling patience after a 25 bps “risk management” cut, the tape is tense: BTC and ETH look cornered at levels where a clean break could accelerate trend—or a miss could unleash deeper downside.

What’s happening now

Analysts describe a “market of maybes”: macro signals are mixed, but flows are supportive. BTC bounced, then slipped as traders await U.S. data that could shape the Fed’s next steps. Powell reiterated there’s no rush to ease further, framing last week’s cut as a balance between inflation risks and employment weakness. Technically, BTC shows a potential double bottom around $111,115 with firm resistance near $113,500. ETH is clinging to $4,000 but remains fragile.

Why this matters to traders

- ETF inflows suggest real-money demand on dips, often a tailwind during Q4 seasonality. - A slower Fed easing path can cap risk appetite short term, amplifying the importance of technical levels. - Tight ranges near inflection points favor disciplined setups: defined breakout triggers and clear invalidations.

Key levels and scenarios

• BTC support: $111,115 (double bottom zone). Lose it decisively and momentum can target $105,000 → $90,000.
• BTC resistance: $113,500. A strong close above could open a push toward the $115,000 region; acceptance above turns dips into potential buys.
• ETH pivot: $4,000. Hold/flip keeps $4,150–$4,250 in play; failure risks a slide to $3,800–$3,600.

Actionable game plan for the next 72 hours

• Trade the trigger, not the bias: Set alerts at BTC $113,500 and $111,115; ETH $4,000. Wait for a candle close and volume to confirm.
• Define invalidations: For breakouts, place stops just back inside the broken level to avoid lingering in fakeouts.
• Size for volatility: Keep position sizes modest; widen stops only if you can reduce size to maintain constant risk.
• Watch flows and macro: Track daily spot ETF inflows/outflows, funding rates, and upcoming U.S. prints (inflation and labor). Flow reversals or hot data can flip the tape fast.
• Have both plans ready: Range-fade between $111k–$113.5k until a confirmed break; switch to breakout-continuation once one side holds.

Risks to respect

• False breaks around widely watched levels (liquidity hunts).
• ETF flow whiplash after strong single-day prints.
• Weekend/liquidity gaps that skip stops; consider protective stops with alerts and avoid overexposure into data releases.

The bottom line

This is a levels-first tape: let BTC’s $113,500/$111,115 and ETH’s $4,000 decide your next move. Combine clean confirmations with strict risk controls, and use ETF flows plus macro data as your tie-breakers. In a market of “maybes,” execution discipline is your edge.

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