Solana is coiling at a make-or-break moment: price is pinned near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and compressing inside a triangle, a setup that often precedes explosive moves. With bulls defending $177 and eyeing a reclaim of $204, and bears waiting for a breakdown to $159, the next decisive candle could set the tone for SOL’s next trend.

What’s happening now

SOL is in a neutral consolidation after a sharp correction, according to MakroVision. Price action is holding around the 0.5 Fibonacci level while volatility contracts inside a triangle. Analysts identify $177 as the short‑term floor to defend, $204 as the long‑term pivot for a bullish resumption, and $223 as the next major resistance above.

Why this matters for traders

Compression typically leads to expansion. A clear break from this triangle can offer asymmetric opportunities—either trend continuation above $204 toward $223, or a trend acceleration lower if $177 gives way. With broader crypto volatility elevated, timing entries around confirmation (not anticipation) can materially improve risk/reward.

Key levels and scenarios

• Above $204: Momentum turns constructive; room toward $223 (major resistance). Watch for volume confirmation.
• Failure at $204: Rejection without volume could mean more chop inside the triangle; avoid chasing wicks.
• Below $177: Opens downside into $159 support zone; look for either continuation or a quick reclaim trap.
• Triangle breakout: Prefer a 4H/D1 close and rising volume to filter fakeouts.

Actionable game plan

• Wait for confirmation: Look for a 4H/D1 close above $204 with above‑average volume before considering breakout longs; map the next target near $223.
• Define invalidation: For any long above $204, consider invalidation on a clean close back below the level; for shorts, a clean close below $177 with momentum improves probability toward $159.
• Position sizing: Keep risk per trade small and consistent; volatility around breakouts can be sharp.
• Mind BTC: Sudden Bitcoin swings can invalidate SOL setups—monitor BTC trend and dominance during execution.

Risk factors to respect

Liquidity pockets around $177 and $204 can induce stop-hunts. Weekend and low-liquidity hours increase fakeout risk. Without a volume surge, initial breaks may fail—prioritize confirmation over anticipation.

Bottom line

SOL’s next directional move likely hinges on a decisive break of the triangle. Above $204 favors a push toward $223; below $177 exposes $159. Patience and disciplined execution around these pivots can make the difference between catching the move and funding the wick.

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