Alt rallies grabbing your feed? The smarter tell is hiding in plain sight: the Altcoin Season Index is stuck at 24, a clear signal that we’re still in a Bitcoin season. In other words, over the last 90 days, only about a quarter of top altcoins have outperformed BTC. If you’ve been feeling whipsawed by selective pumps while your broader alt bag lags, this is why—and it should shape how you position now.

What’s Happening Right Now

The Altcoin Season Index tracks the top 100 crypto assets (excluding stablecoins and wrapped coins) and declares “altseason” when 75% of them beat Bitcoin over a 90‑day window. At 24, most altcoins are trailing BTC’s momentum. Macro caution, the post‑halving attention cycle, and a lack of fresh narratives have reinforced Bitcoin dominance and capital concentration in BTC.

Why This Matters to Traders

When Bitcoin leads, liquidity becomes selective. Bid depth migrates to BTC, altcoins face sharper drawdowns on red days, and “rotation” windows shrink. Chasing isolated alt spikes becomes higher risk because broad market beta isn’t on your side. In a Bitcoin season, time-in-trade and position sizing matter more than ever.

The One Actionable Takeaway

Trade the market you have, not the one you want: anchor your portfolio in BTC while timing selective, high‑conviction alt exposure during BTC consolidation—not during vertical BTC breakouts.

How to Execute in a Bitcoin Season

• Make BTC your core. Keep a majority allocation in BTC until breadth improves (e.g., Altcoin Season Index rising toward 40–50 and BTC dominance rolling over).
• Wait for BTC to pause. Look for BTC consolidation (sideways ranges, volatility compression) before rotating into alts; avoid heavy alt risk during rapid BTC trend days.
• Demand relative strength. Screen alts that are above their 50D/200D MAs and printing higher highs while BTC goes sideways. Weak charts are dead weight in Bitcoin season.
• Position sizing and invalidation. Risk 0.5–1.5% per trade with hard stops below structure lows; predefine invalidation to avoid cascading losses.
• Stagger entries. Use tiered limit buys on retests (prior breakout levels, key EMAs) instead of aping into vertical candles.
• Take profits mechanically. Scale out 25–33% at 1R and trail stops; alt liquidity can vanish fast when BTC makes a decisive move.
• Watch breadth and dominance. Improving market breadth, an Altseason Index climbing toward 75, and falling BTC dominance are your rotation green lights.

What Could Flip the Script for Alts

• BTC consolidation after a strong leg (sideways range, declining realized volatility).
• New narratives gaining traction (DeFi revenue growth, L2 adoption, real‑world assets, AI infra).
• Reduced BTC dominance with sustained lower highs on BTC.D.
• Improving macro (dovish rates, risk‑on equities, tighter credit spreads).

Risk Check: What Can Go Wrong

- If BTC breaks out strongly, alt pairs often bleed versus BTC even if USD prices hold—protect with stops and smaller sizing. - Narrative rotation without breadth is a trap; isolated pumps don’t equal altseason. - Liquidity is fickle; widen slippage assumptions and avoid thin books for larger orders.

Bottom Line

With the Altcoin Season Index at 24, trade a Bitcoin-led market: overweight BTC, target only the strongest alt setups during BTC pauses, and let data (breadth, dominance, volatility) tell you when to rotate more aggressively. Discipline now sets you up to pounce when the index finally marches toward 75%.

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