Bitcoin’s next big move may start with a head-fake. Multiple respected traders argue a quick sweep toward $100,000 could be the springboard to a grind higher toward $130,000 and, if momentum holds, a shot at $150,000 into 2026. With institutional demand rising and liquidity rotating out of gold, the window for disciplined positioning may open around macro catalysts—exactly when most participants get shaken out.

What’s Happening Now

Bitcoin has been respecting an ascending channel since late 2023. Price is stuck between firm resistance at $115,000–$118,000 and a well-bid support pocket at $95,000–$100,000. Analysts say a brief retracement toward the lower band would be a standard consolidation, not a trend break, with the structure still pointing higher over the long term.

Why This Matters to Traders

- Liquidity is reportedly rotating from gold into Bitcoin, improving spot demand. - Multiple desks highlight increased institutional buying; even former net sellers appear to be accumulating. - As liquidity deepens near support, shakeouts become opportunities for those with predefined risk.

Key Levels to Watch

- Resistance: $115,000–$118,000 (sustained reclaim opens path to $130,000) - Support: $95,000–$100,000 (historically active buy zone within the channel) - Medium-term targets discussed: $130,000, then $150,000 if trend strength persists

Macro Triggers on Deck

CPI on Oct 24 and the FOMC on Oct 29 can whipsaw price into the monthly close. Analysts frame recent reversals as liquidity sweeps—moves that trap late shorts and fuel upside once event risk clears. Expect elevated volatility around data prints.

Actionable Game Plan

• Map the channel: Mark $95,000–$100,000 support and $115,000–$118,000 resistance. Avoid chasing mid-range.
• Use staged orders: Traders often ladder bids near support and scale out into resistance rather than all-in entries.
• Define invalidation: Pre-set stop levels below your chosen support; if broken, step aside and reassess.
• Watch flows and funding: Rising spot inflows with flat/negative funding can confirm healthier accumulation.
• Track macro timing: Reduce leverage heading into CPI/FOMC; re-evaluate once spreads and volatility compress.
• Monitor open interest and liquidity pockets: High OI plus overhead liquidity increases squeeze potential after data.

Risks and Invalidations

A decisive breakdown below $95,000 would question the immediate channel thesis and could unlock deeper tests. A weak reaction to CPI/FOMC or a reversal in institutional flows would also dampen the bull case. Keep position sizing conservative when volatility expands.

The Bottom Line

The prevailing setup favors a disciplined “buy-the-dip within trend” approach, but only with clear invalidation and respect for event risk. If the channel holds, a pullback toward $100,000 may be the reset that powers the next leg toward $130,000—with $150,000 on the table if demand persists.

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