Bitcoin ripped into the weekly close with a burst of upside, pressing into the $112,000 zone just as markets price a near-certain Fed rate cut next week. The setup is classic high-volatility: a range reclaimed after cooler US inflation, persistent accumulation signals, and a macro catalyst on deck. The question for traders now is simple—does a decisive reclaim above $112K–$113K flip momentum toward new local highs, or do we get a classic weekly close fakeout before the FOMC?

What’s moving Bitcoin right now

A late-week rebound lifted BTC to the top of its recent range, with improving inflation data boosting risk appetite. Multiple traders flagged steady buy programs—consistent TWAP-style flows—supporting a short-term uptrend into resistance. Weekly closes often amplify volatility, and with the Fed in focus, liquidity pockets above and below spot are in play.

Key levels traders are watching

The market has crystalized around a few actionable levels: - $108,200: active long support/invalidation for some intraday traders. - $112,000: immediate resistance; a clean break and close above suggests continuation. - $112,000–$114,000: reclaim zone that could open a quick push toward $118,000. - $113,000: short-term holder (STH) cost basis—a key pivot; sustained acceptance above often signals trend strength. - $123,000: measured extension target on a confirmed breakout. - $130,000–$144,000: higher-timeframe resistance band if momentum accelerates above the STH pivot.

Macro tailwind: Fed cut odds at 98%

CME’s FedWatch shows odds above 98% for a 0.25% cut on Oct 29, while a majority of global central banks have eased in the past six months. Broad monetary easing typically supports risk assets and liquidity-sensitive trades. But be mindful: into major policy events, markets can “buy the rumor, sell the news,” especially if guidance tempers future cut expectations.

Action plan for the week

• Breakout confirmation: Look for a 4H/12H close above $112K–$113K with rising spot-led volume and stable funding; target $118K then $123K. Invalidate on loss of the breakout level.
• Failed breakout/fakeout: If price wicks above $112K and slips back below on the close, consider mean-reversion toward $110K and potentially $108.2K. Watch for exhaustion in open interest and a funding flip.
• Event risk management: Avoid oversized leverage into the Oct 29 FOMC. Reduce size or hedge; spreads can widen and slippage can spike.
• Execution checklist: Set alerts at $111.8K, $113K, and $118K; track bid/ask imbalance and cumulative volume delta; prioritize clear invalidation over prediction.

Risks to respect

Weekend and weekly-close candles often produce stop sweeps. Derivatives positioning can accelerate both upside squeezes and downside flushes. A hawkish surprise—or softer forward guidance—could unwind the risk-on move quickly. Don’t anchor to targets without a plan for volatility and liquidity gaps.

Bottom line

The practical pivot is $113,000. Acceptance and hold above it shifts short-term momentum to buyers with a path toward $118K and $123K; repeated rejections argue for a deeper rotation toward $110K–$108.2K. Build your plan around that pivot, define invalidation, and respect the FOMC tape.

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