When 97,000 BTC suddenly moves in a single day, the market is sending a message. As Bitcoin coils inside a descending wedge around $108K, long-term holders are distributing while institutions keep buying the dip. This push-pull is defining the next major move—your edge is understanding which side blinks first.

What just happened

Glassnode data shows long-term holder (LTH) spending accelerated on Aug 29, with about 97,000 BTC moved—the largest daily total of 2025. Roughly 70% came from coins held between one and five years. The 14‑day SMA of LTH spending is trending higher but remains below the Oct–Nov 2024 spike highs, indicating activity is elevated yet still within cycle norms. Price has stabilized near $108,068 with modest intraday gains.

Why this matters for traders

- LTH distribution typically increases around inflection zones—either late in pullbacks or early in recoveries. Today’s profile suggests supply is loosening but not flooding the market. - Institutions are quietly adding. Sweden’s Goobit Group lifted its treasury to 11.6491 BTC, while Satsuma Technology increased to 1,148.65 BTC. That steady bid can underpin dips, but LTH supply may still cap rallies until absorbed. - Net effect: a balanced battleground. Momentum needs confirmation from price and on-chain cooldown to sustain upside.

Structure, levels, and timing

Bitcoin is consolidating in a descending wedge with key support near $107,000. Overhead resistance sits at $111,888, $116,705, and $119,746. A confirmed breakout could target $124,487 (~13.9% from support). Watch for strong candles and rising volume through resistance; failure to hold $107K would invalidate the bullish wedge thesis and increase downside risk.

Actionable game plan

• Set alerts: $107,000, $111,888, $116,705, $119,746, $124,487.
• Breakout approach: Wait for a 4H/D close above $111,888 with expanding volume and a cooling LTH 14‑day spending SMA. Scale targets: $116,705 → $119,746 → $124,487.
• Range approach: Consider bids only if $107,000 holds with multiple rejections and a higher low on 4H. Predetermine risk and keep stops disciplined below structure.
• On-chain lens: If LTH spending accelerates while price stalls at resistance, respect the supply overhang. If it decelerates as price reclaims resistance, momentum odds improve.
• Institutional tells: Track treasury updates; steady adds can bolster dip confidence, but don’t front-run without technical confirmation.

Key risks to manage

False breakouts are common in wedge structures, especially when liquidity is thin. A rapid uptick in LTH distribution (akin to late 2024 spikes) can overwhelm shallow bids. Macro headlines can distort signals—avoid chasing moves without confirmation and always size positions to withstand volatility.

Bottom line

The market is balanced between elastic supply from long-term holders and a slow institutional bid. Let price confirm. Trade the break above $111,888 with on-chain cooldown, or fade to $107K only if the level proves itself.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.