Bitcoin just ripped to a new rebound high near $116,495, spot BTC ETFs pulled in $1.7B this week, and monthly Bollinger Bands are the tightest in years—conditions that have preceded violent upside in past cycles. Yet, under the surface, on-chain and momentum gauges are split, with CryptoQuant’s Bull Score flashing 8/10 bearish signals. This is the kind of tape where precision on levels—not opinions—decides PnL. Here’s the trader’s map for the next leg.

What’s moving the market

ETF demand is providing a sturdy bid while volatility compression hints at a larger directional move into Q4. At the same time, momentum breadth is mixed, arguing for level-by-level execution and swift invalidations. Leaders like BNB and SOL are signalling risk-on, but the market is still unforgiving on late entries.

Bitcoin: levels that matter now

Above $113,500 and the 50D SMA (~$114,544) keeps the recovery intact. Watch the cluster at $117,500 and $120,000; a clean break targets $124,474, then $141,948. Lose the 20D EMA (~$112,622) and the path opens toward $107,000.

• Momentum long: Reclaims and holds above $117,500 → trail into $120K/$124,474.
• Risk line: Daily close back below the 20D EMA invalidates; reduce into $107K demand.

Ether: breakout watch

ETH resolved higher from its range. Sellers likely cluster near $4,957. A pullback that holds $4,500 favors a push toward $5,500. Lose $4,250 and risk shifts to $4,060 then $3,500.

• Continuation bias above $4,500; acceptance under $4,250 flips to defense.

BNB and Solana: leadership check

BNB printed an ATH; holding above $900 sets a run to the psychological $1,000. Pullbacks that respect the 20D EMA (~$868) keep the trend healthy; below that, watch the 50D SMA (~$834).

SOL cleared $218 and is marching into a heavy $240–$260 zone. Acceptance above $260 opens $295. First weakness arrives on a daily close below the 20D EMA (~$209).

XRP, ADA, LINK: rotation setups

XRP must defend the 20D EMA (~$2.93) to avoid a bull trap. Strength above $3.15 targets $3.40; weakness points to $2.73.

ADA broke its channel line; holding the 20D EMA (~$0.85) keeps upside to $0.96 and $1.02 in play. Lose MAs and a trap back to the support line is likely.

LINK reclaimed $24; staying above the 20D EMA (~$23.36) favors a push into $26–$28. A daily close below the 20D risks a slide to the 50D (~$21.84) and the uptrend line.

DOGE: speculative, handle with care

DOGE is trying to hold above $0.26 with a pivotal ceiling at $0.29. A breakout could run toward $0.44, but failure leaves it range-bound $0.29–$0.14. Note of caution: Memecoins are highly speculative, move on sentiment, and can whipsaw on thin liquidity. Size small, use hard stops, and avoid chasing vertical candles.

HYPE and SUI: momentum vs. structure

HYPE cleared $49.88; with an overbought RSI, a retest is likely. Strong rebounds from $49.88 keep the pattern target near $64.25 alive; a break under the 50D (~$44.68) signals a short-term top.

SUI is pressing its downtrend line. Holding the 20D (~$3.48) increases odds of a breakout toward $4.18. Slip below $3.11 hands control back to bears.

Risk management in this tape

• Trade the 20D EMA as your line-in-the-sand on majors; strength above, caution below.
• Enter on acceptance (multiple closes or strong retests) rather than first touch of resistance.
• Trail winners under higher lows or VWAP on your execution timeframe.
• De-risk into obvious levels ($120K BTC, $1,000 BNB, $260 SOL) and reload on confirmed retests.

The one actionable takeaway

Let the market prove direction. Focus on acceptance above BTC $117.5K and SOL $260 to press longs across leaders, while using the 20D EMA as your universal risk toggle. If acceptance fails, step aside and wait for pullbacks into demand.

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