Bitcoin stalls below a stubborn ceiling while Wall Street quietly opens the gates and Ripple’s cofounder keeps selling into strength — today’s tape is a masterclass in conflicting signals. With BTC hovering near $111,000, XRP fighting for $2.50, and stablecoin dominance still elevated, traders face a clear decision point: position for a breakout, or protect against a flush. Here’s what just changed — and how to trade it.

What just happened

Chris Larsen, Ripple cofounder, has sold about $764M in XRP since 2018, including roughly $120M this month routed to Evernorth Treasury — yet still holds an estimated $9B in XRP. That’s a persistent supply overhang whenever momentum builds.

JPMorgan is preparing to let institutions post Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for loans by year-end, moving spot coins (not just wrapped ETFs) into mainstream credit workflows via third-party custody. It’s a structural step toward treating crypto like equities, bonds, and gold in secured lending.

Tesla reported an $80M unrealized profit in Q3 from its 11,509 BTC treasury (worth ~$1.31B on Sept. 30), underscoring how corporate treasuries can quietly amplify earnings volatility without trading a single coin.

Why this matters to traders

- XRP supply risk: Founder sales historically coincide with strength, creating “sell-the-rip” headwinds and technical rejections near resistance zones. - Credit integration: Allowing BTC/ETH as collateral can lower funding frictions, deepen liquidity, and tighten spreads — a medium-term tailwind for price discovery. - Earnings sensitivity: Tesla’s mark-to-market gain highlights how rising BTC prices can influence corporate risk-taking and market narrative, especially into earnings seasons. - Risk tone: Stablecoin dominance around 7% signals improving but cautious risk appetite; breakouts need fresh spot demand, not just derivatives leverage.

Key levels and scenarios

For BTC: price near $111,172; resistance $114,000 then $118,000. Supports: $111,000, $110,000, with a downside magnet toward $108,000 on failure. A clean 4H/1D close above $114K opens a trend extension; repeated rejections invite range rotations back to $110K–$108K.

For XRP: price ~$2.45. The $2.50–$2.60 band is the make-or-break zone; failure keeps gravity toward $2.30 then $2.00, with $1.95 as structural support. Weekly Bollinger midline near $2.76 caps upside until reclaimed; lower band near $1.95 suggests room to dip without oversold extremes.

Actionable game plan

• Bracket BTC: Consider conditional orders around $114K (breakout) and $110K (range defense). Use tighter risk on first touch of levels; expand only on confirmation (close + volume).
• XRP fade-or-flip: Fade rallies into $2.50–$2.60 unless a daily close reclaims the band with rising spot volumes; if reclaimed, flip bias toward $2.76. Track known founder-linked wallets for fresh transfers that could front-run supply.
• Funding and basis: Into any BTC breakout, monitor perp funding and futures basis. If they spike ahead of price, be wary of squeeze exhaust; if they lag a clean break, momentum has room.
• Collateral narrative: Map a watchlist of banks/custodians expanding crypto collateral programs. Positive announcements can compress risk premia and support dips.
• Weekend liquidity: If Friday fails to clear $114K, reduce leverage into the weekend; liquidity thins and wick-risk rises.

Risks to watch

- Accelerated XRP distributions from founder-linked wallets during strength. - A hard rejection at $114K BTC with rising funding — classic bull trap setup. - Regulatory or custody headlines impacting bank collateral timelines. - Macro risk-off (yields, dollar spikes) draining crypto liquidity.

Bottom line

Founder selling is pressuring XRP at precisely the levels bulls need to win back, while BTC sits one clean breakout away from momentum. The JPMorgan collateral shift is a medium-term structural positive; Tesla’s mark-to-market gain keeps the treasury narrative alive. Trade the levels, respect liquidity, and let confirmation — not hope — set your entries.

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