Nearly $6B in Bitcoin and Ethereum options come off the board today just as macro shockwaves still ripple through risk markets—setting up a classic pin-or-pop scenario into the weekend. With BTC hovering just above its max pain and ETH elevated after a strong run, traders face a tight battlefield where dealer hedging, IV shifts, and fresh positioning could decide whether price gets magnetized to key strikes or breaks to new ranges.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin’s max pain sits near $117,000 while spot trades around $118,995. The BTC put-call ratio is roughly 0.9–0.95, a slight call skew that hints at a mild bullish bias. About $4.6–$4.8B in BTC options (≈39–40k contracts) and $1.3–$1.33B in ETH options (≈280–288k contracts) are expiring.

Implied volatility diverges: BTC IV is subdued (<35% short/medium tenor), while ETH IV remains elevated (around 70%). Deribit reported a record $10.9B daily volume, underscoring intense positioning. This all follows hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation prints (PPI 3.7%, core CPI back above 3%).

Why it matters

Large expiries can “pin” price near max pain as dealers unwind hedges—until post-expiry re-hedging catalyzes a move. With BTC near max pain and ETH above it, the window around expiry can deliver whipsaws and then fresh trends as books reset. The IV split means strategy selection isn’t one-size-fits-all.

Key levels to watch

BTC: $117k–$118k (pin zone), $122k (local top risk), downside liquidity pockets toward $115k if pin breaks. ETH: $4,000 (max pain), $4,700 (local top risk), supports near $4,480 and $4,350–$4,400.

Volatility read: BTC vs ETH

- BTC (low IV): Cheaper options can make debit spreads or calendar spreads more appealing if you expect post-expiry expansion. Low IV increases the risk of selling premium without adequate cushion. - ETH (high IV): Elevated IV favors defined-risk premium selling (e.g., credit spreads) for experienced traders, but tail risk is meaningful if momentum extends. Consider hedged structures; avoid naked short vol.

Action plan for the next 48 hours

• Respect the pin: Fade impulsive moves into $117k–$118k BTC and $4k ETH until you see sustained spot + perp + options flow alignment.
• Wait for the reset: The cleaner move often comes after expiry as dealers re-hedge. Watch cumulative delta, OI shifts, and funding/basis flips.
• Use defined risk: Prefer spreads over naked options; size for gap risk into the weekend.
• Track IV: If BTC IV lifts from sub-35% with price expansion, consider rolling from debit to ratioed or calendar structures. If ETH IV crushes, take profits on short-vol spreads.
• Confirm with tape: Monitor Deribit block prints, spot CVD, and liquidity at $122k (BTC) and $4.7k (ETH) for breakout/failed-break cues.
• Mind the macro: Elevated inflation risk keeps headline sensitivity high—avoid overexposure into data drops.

Risks and traps

Post-expiry “fake breaks,” thin weekend books, and sudden IV shifts can punish late entries. ETH’s higher IV amplifies both gains and losses; BTC’s low IV can lull traders before a sharp expansion. Keep stops mechanical and avoid averaging into losers.

The bottom line

Into today’s expiry, BTC is primed for a pin with asymmetric breakout potential, while ETH demands respect for higher vol and tail risks. Let the post-expiry re-hedge reveal direction, align with flows, and use defined risk to express your bias.

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