Nearly $5B in Bitcoin options are set to roll off today with a rare, almost perfectly balanced positioning — and the market sits right between a heavy put wall near $100K and a lofty max pain at $114K. With total options open interest at an all-time high and a delayed US CPI print due today, traders are asking one question: will price pin into expiry or explode once hedges unwind?

What’s Expiring and When

Around 47,000 BTC options contracts (≈$5.1B notional) expire today, primarily on Deribit at 8:00 UTC. The put/call ratio is 1.03 — essentially balanced — and max pain sits near $114K. On ETH, about 193,000 contracts (≈$749M) expire with max pain $3,950 and put/call 0.78. Total options OI is elevated: ≈$63B across all exchanges, with Deribit reporting a record ≈$50B.

Why It Matters Now

BTC spot has been largely sideways, but the derivatives mix is changing: futures OI dropped by 20%–25% in recent weeks while options OI surged, indicating a rotation from high leverage to hedging. Into large expiries, dealers’ hedging flows can “pin” price toward high OI strikes or max pain; after expiry, that grip can loosen, increasing the odds of a directional move — especially with a same-day CPI release that could surprise vs. the 3.1% expectation.

Key Levels and Option Flows

OI is stacked at the $120K, $130K, and $140K calls, while shorts defend the $100K area. BTC trades around $108K, with traders eyeing the $112K struggle zone mentioned by pros and the broader range of $100K–$114K. A tight pre-expiry range favors pinning; a decisive post-expiry break with rising volume and falling IV often signals follow-through.

Actionable Game Plan for Traders

• Respect the clock: Expect muted moves into 8:00 UTC and more honest price discovery after hedges roll off.
• Map scenarios: If BTC gravitates to $110K–$114K pre-expiry, watch for a post-expiry fake-out before the real move. If it flushes to $102K–$104K, look for absorption and IV spikes that can mean-revert.
• Risk first: Reduce leverage ahead of CPI; use hard stops. Consider simple hedges (e.g., short-dated protective puts) if long spot.
• Confirm the break: Only chase a move if price reclaims/loses $112K or $100K on strong volume and IV declines (bullish) or expands (bearish) in line with direction.
• Read the options tape: Watch skew and the 25-delta RR. A flip to call-skew with falling IV can fuel upside; persistent put-skew into rising IV warns of more downside.
• Manage post-expiry IV: If implied volatility decompresses after the print, option sellers may find better premiums; if IV crushes, directional spot/futures can outperform.

Spot Market Context

Total crypto market cap is up ~1.8% to ≈$3.8T. BTC briefly pushed above $111K before easing. ETH, SOL, and BNB have shown relative strength, but BTC remains the flow driver given today’s supersized options roll.

Risks to Watch

Liquidity can thin around macro data and technical outages, creating gaps and wick risks. A hotter-than-expected CPI could lift USD yields and pressure risk assets. Monitor funding, liquidation heatmaps, and cross-asset signals (gold, equities) for confirmation and divergence.

Bottom Line

Into the bell, expect pinning; after expiry plus CPI, prepare for a more directional tape. Let the first move play out, confirm with volume and volatility behavior, then execute your plan with disciplined risk.

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