A classic market ghost may be haunting Bitcoin: veteran trader Peter Brandt sees a pattern resembling the 1977 soybean expanding top—a setup that preceded a brutal 50% collapse. At the same time, a widely watched Cycle Peak Countdown suggests BTC has completed 99.3% of its cycle. Add gold’s biggest daily slide since 2013 and rising talk of a rotation into BTC—plus CZ’s bold claim that Bitcoin will surpass gold—and you have a market primed for either a euphoric breakout or a punishing unwind. The edge now belongs to traders who prepare, not predict.

Why 1977 Matters for Bitcoin

Brandt warns that BTC’s structure may mirror an expanding top, a distribution pattern marked by higher highs and lower lows that ends in a sharp trend resolution. His map leaves room for both extremes: a push toward $250,000 or a flush toward the $60,000 area. In late-cycle conditions—if Crypto ₿irb’s model is right—misused leverage becomes the fastest path to ruin.

Why Traders Should Care Right Now

Late-cycle rallies often lure traders into crowded longs with rising funding and ballooning open interest. If the pattern breaks down, cascading liquidations can accelerate the move. Meanwhile, gold’s drawdown increases narrative flows into BTC, amplifying volatility. This is a regime where risk management drives returns more than raw conviction.

Actionable Play: Trade the Break, Not the Noise

The single most important takeaway: prioritize confirmation over prediction and cap downside with disciplined position sizing and stop-losses.

• Define the structure: mark the broadening highs/lows on the daily/weekly chart; that’s your decision zone.
• Only add risk on a weekly close outside the pattern; fade or de-risk inside the chop.
• Risk 0.5–1.0% of equity per idea; pre-commit exits before entry.
• If long into uncertainty, consider a hedge: protective puts or a small short-perp overlay sized to neutralize a part of delta.
• Avoid high leverage; late-cycle volatility makes tight stops unreliable.

Signals to Monitor

• Funding and open interest: rising faster than price = crowding risk.
• Weekly close vs. the expanding top boundaries: acceptance or rejection.
• BTC dominance and stablecoin flows: rotation into or out of crypto risk.
• Gold vs. BTC relative strength: narrative tailwind or fading impulse.
• Liquidity pockets: visible spot sell walls/buy walls and ETF net flows.

Bottom Line

This tape can reward patience and punish bravado. Don’t bet the farm on a path; build a plan for both. Let the market show its hand with a confirmed break, keep losses small, and use hedges to survive the volatility that cycle endings tend to unleash.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.